Saturday, November 3, 2012

Peak American Human Labor?

Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in on the last two years and throw in a new trend line.

Click to enlarge.

Understand that I cannot accurately predict the future using trend lines (especially ones using 2nd order polynomials). That said, we do not appear to be on a trajectory that will break the record high of 107.7 set in December of 2007.

November 3, 2012
Mish on Capital Account: Jobs, Real Wages, Income Distribution, Fiscal Stimulus

The index of aggregate hours paints a good picture of the stall in the recovery. Employment is up, but hours are not up proportionally. This reflects the trend to part-time workers and the reduction of hours in part-time workers.

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Troy said...

Obamacare's employer mandates throws this curve an anvil:

Obamacare Is About To Whack Personal Income -- The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Market

While I think the aim was noble the implementation was half-baked, and our fractious politics makes it impossible to actually revisit the law like a mature, functional democracy could.

Hey, only one day (hopefully!) until I learn if I have to bug out of here again!

Stagflationary Mark said...


As I've said before, I think Obama is paving us a road to hell with good intentions. Romney will fly us there directly. Sigh.