Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Long-Term Cherry Picked Employment Trend


Click to enlarge.

I started with nonfarm payrolls which already exclude the long-term decline in farm labor. I then subtracted the declining long-term trend in manufacturing employees. I then subtracted the awful construction employment numbers of late. And lastly, retail trade employment hasn't been performing well at all since the success of Amazon.com.

What's left? All that cherry picked employment trend goodness! That's what!

Oh, crap. It's still a massive exponential trend failure? 29.6 million jobs below trend? Seriously? Can't say I didn't try. Hey, at least there has been some growth since 2000. That's something I guess. Sigh.

And people wonder why I'm a permabear?

This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments found here.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

11 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

"This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments."

Sarcasm? You don't know sarcasm until you've been eyeball to eyball with a liberal across the hoocoodanode DMZ that is about -this- wide. The sarcasm? You can't handle the sarcasm!

Keep up the good fight Mark.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Pity the fool who wanders into the DMZ unaware.

As a permabear, I've found myself there more than a few times. I'm trying to remember the last time. Oh, yeah. I remember. It had something to do with California employment numbers not looking fantastic to me.

What was I thinking? ;)

TJandTheBear said...

Wonder what a federal employment growth chart looks like? Doubt there's a trend failure... yet.

Stagflationary Mark said...

TJandTheBear,

Surprise!

All Employees: Government: Federal

It rolled over in 1990. It's definitely not keeping up with population growth.

Here's how it compares to nonfarm payroll jobs.

All Employees: Government: Federal / All Employees: Total nonfarm

Here's all government (including state and local).

All Employees: Government

Here's how that compares to nonfarm payroll jobs.

All Employees: Government / All Employees: Total nonfarm

As seen in the last chart, it would seem we're not quick to let the government workers go when the economy heads south. Go figure.

Stagflationary Mark said...

(And by heading south, I mean since 2000.)

Fatboy said...

"awful construction employment numbers of late."

I read that somewhere else. Zero growth in construction jobs during this entire kick-ass housing recovery.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fatboy,

As seen here, you are right, sir.

Zero.
Nada.
Zilch.

Rob Dawg said...

TJ ecrit:
All Employees: Government: Federal

It rolled over in 1990. It's definitely not keeping up with population growth.


Nope. That's when government started "outsourcing." All those contractors who empty the trash in the Pentagon are every bit as much government employees as they were before being "privatized." Sneaky accounting trick nothing more.

dearieme said...

SM, it's time you produced a graph showing the number of your "exponential trend failure" graphs versus time.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Ah, yes. The old contractor trick, eh? Good point.

Defense contractor

Defense contracting has expanded dramatically over the last decade, particularly in the United States, where in the last fiscal year the Department of Defense spent nearly $316 billion on contracts.

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

SM, it's time you produced a graph showing the number of your "exponential trend failure" graphs versus time.

I think I could stay on exponential trend for a few more years if I upgrade my computer, lol. Sigh.