Saturday, November 17, 2012

Is California Recovering Faster?

November 17, 2012
California: Unemployment Rate falls to 10.1% in October, Payroll jobs increase 45,800

Recently I've been talking to a few friends from around the country, and they all seemed unaware that the California economy is clearly improving. California is seeing a pickup in employment, the delinquency rate is falling, and I wouldn't be surprised if California reports a balanced budget soon.

I was certainly unaware that California's economy was improving so much. It prompted me to create a few charts.

Click to enlarge.

As seen in nonfarm payrolls since 2010, California's employment is improving exactly like the rest of the country. No better, no worse.

Click to enlarge.

As seen in initial claims since 2010, California sends people to the unemployment lines exactly like the rest of the country. No better, no worse.

If you think California's economy is doing fantastic, then you no doubt think the rest of the country is too. Do you? I sure don't.

Hey, I just call it the way I see it.

Source Data:
BLS: State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings
St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Payrolls
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims Custom Chart


Rob Dawg said...

I'm halfway through refuting the other claim of California near "balanced budget." Not even remotely true even using government accounting.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

I figured you'd be all over that one, especially after your Big Bad Choo-Choo post, lol. Sigh.

In any event, I'll definitely be reading what you write!

fried said...

I was please to see you posting on CR last night, but had to unignore skk to follow the thread.
I was stunned to learn that you are a liar and a shit.
Who knew? On the other hand, said poster called Nate Silver a huckster and a fool, just before the election, so you are in very good company.
The witless insults that now pollute CR's blog have driven off many good posters, and I find I have to come here for you and for Comrade Troyski, for example.
Purple, who used to post very brief but insightful comments re the ME is also apparently gone.
But, I too was stunned to read that someone else is buying EE bonds...still my own personal secret, only shared here.
Best regards.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I was stunned to learn that you are a liar and a shit.

Thanks for your support! Hahaha!

I have no idea why you have skk on your ignore list. Was it something he said?

He was nothing but a gentleman and a scholar from what I could see.

That point where he called me an idiot was one of the most original and effective rebuttals in an economic debate since the invention of the fisticuffs. ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...


For what it is worth, I'll be a buyer of EE bonds again in January.

The only thing I can say with certainty is that they are on the bargain table compared to 20-year treasuries (if held the full 20 years).

I only have 18 years to go on the EE-Bonds I bought in 2010. No complaints so far.

Only 18 years? Seems like an eternity. A lot can clearly happen between now and then.

EE-Bonds may perform better than I-Bonds using hindsight in the future perhaps, but I sure sleep better with I-Bonds.

And even I-Bonds don't give me Candy Mountain dreams. I can assure you of that. Sigh.

We pick our poisons though. What else can we do in this environment (or the environment some of us expect in the future)?

Fatboy said...

Liar and a shit? What brought that on? And how can someone be "a shit?" You can take one, smell like, be full of or taste like, but I don't understand how you can be a shit.

Stagflationary Mark said...


To be fair, I believe he was referring to my charts as pieces of @#$%. I didn't take that personally.

The liar part is pretty accurate though, as was referring to me as an idiot.

Perhaps he was just an avid fan of Star Trek.

The Trouble with Tribbles

Scott: Well, Captain, er, the Klingons called you a... a... a tin-plated overbearing, swaggering dictator with delusions of godhood.
Capt. Kirk: Is that all?
Scott: No, sir. They also compared you with a Denebian slime devil.
Capt. Kirk: I see.
Scott: And then they said that you were...
Capt. Kirk: I get the picture, Scotty.
Scott: Yes, sir.
Capt. Kirk: And after they said all this, that's when you hit the Klingons.
Scott: No, sir.
Capt. Kirk: No?
Scott: No, er, I didn't. You told us to avoid trouble.
Capt. Kirk: Oh, yes.
Scott: Well, I didn't see that it was worth fighting about. After all, we're big enough to take a few insults, aren't we?
Capt. Kirk: What was it they said that started the fight?
Scott: They called the Enterprise a garbage scow! Sir.
Capt. Kirk: I see. And that's when you hit the Klingon?
Scott: Yes, sir.
Capt. Kirk: You hit the Klingons because they insulted the Enterprise, not because they...
Scott: Well, sir, this was a matter of pride!

dd said...

EE bonds; I'm a hoarder of those too way back to the '80's and now I have to unhoard. But not to fear as I'm investing in a multi-generational upgrade. Hell the kids have landed back home twice already; figure the odd are increasing they will show up with offspring in tow.

Stagflationary Mark said...


But not to fear as I'm investing in a multi-generational upgrade.

Have you thought of using an offspring relocation service? ;)