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Hurricane Sandy continues to do some damage. Some would argue that it is a one-time only event and therefore we shouldn't even factor it in. I'm in a somewhat different camp. For what I see coming, I believe black swans outnumber white swans. A hurricane is just one black swan of many.
What is the white swan version of a hurricane? Is there a force of nature that can actually strengthen the typical businesses within its path? Is there a healing tornado? Is there a prosperity earthquake? From where I sit, mother nature seems a bit lopsided.
And lastly, if this was all due to Hurricane Sandy then why were 24,693 more people (compared to the previous week) sent to the unemployment lines in California in the week ending November 10? Sympathy pain? I've heard rumors California was doing so well.
See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.23
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims
11 comments:
I do believe most of the upward rise was due to Hurricane Sandy. What if it is only 95% of the rise though? That other 5% could do some serious damage over the next year or so if it continues to fester. And how would we know? The hurricane would have masked it.
That implies extra danger to me.
California is Greece x5. The lies about our financial condition are so deep most people refuse to believe them.
Re: claims
The Sandy excuse is only be good for another couple of weeks. CR did an interview with business insider and was very bullish overall. He said the US is in the best shape since 1997. Things are clearly better than 2008, but I see more problems than ponies ahead.
Re: California
Cali has chronic Greece disease, but is not in the advanced stages yet. With a democratic super majority, it will be interesting to see what happens. There can be no finger pointing except within the single party in power.
Rob Dawg & Mr Slippery,
What Lies Beneath
Claire Spencer: I think she's startin' to suspect something.
Norman: Who?
Claire Spencer: [face morphs into the ghost] Your wife!
I certainly wouldn't claim to know more than the two of you (who actually live in California).
That said, I would not believe the following unless there was a national ad campaign, lol. Sigh.
What happens in California stays in California!
"CR did an interview with business insider and was very bullish overall. He said the US is in the best shape since 1997."
Business insider, the National Enquirer, the Star magazine of economic(?)blogs.
Any reasons given for the US being in the best shape since 1997? News from 1997:(May 21). U.S. jobless rate for May reported 4.8%, lowest since 1973 (June 6). European Union bolsters currency merger (June 16). Congress votes major tax cuts (June 26). And Princess Diana, Mother Teresa both died.
Irving Fisher was also seen as a guru up until he famously predicted, three days before the crash, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
News from 1997:(May 21). U.S. jobless rate for May reported 4.8%, lowest since 1973. Covered employment, those eligible to file for UE, as of May 24th, 1997 - 115,361,745
10/27/12 - 128,066,082
15 years of 150k new entrants into the workforce equals 27 million new entrants. What happened to the remaining 14 million plus?
Non-farm payroll growth was higher in 1997. Trend points to negative numbers soon.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
Fatboy,
Business insider, the National Enquirer, the Star magazine of economic(?)blogs.
Don't hold back. Tell us what you really think. Hahaha! ;)
In all seriousness, I find it more than a bit hard to believe that the economy of today is comparable to 1997.
Oh, wait. I know. Stock market returns since 1997 have been pretty lousy. Perhaps the comparison is that the next 15 years will be lousy too? That I could believe! Sigh.
"Don't hold back. Tell us what you really think. Hahaha! ;)"
You actually think that was harsh? I felt I was stating the obvious
Fatboy,
I didn't think it was harsh. I will say that it's got some tough competition though. Take the following for example.
September 28, 2010
Ken Fisher Dubs New Normal Idiotic, Sees Great Decade Ahead
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