Saturday, November 17, 2012

What Recovery?

Click to enlarge.

Here's the same data plotted on a log chart.

Click to enlarge.

Ouch. The changing trends are not our friends. The exponential trend failed in the mid 1970s. It failed again about 12 years ago. Should it ever fail again, watch out below.

November 16, 2012
Hostess shutdown prompts snack cake buying binge

On Friday, the 82-year-old company announced it will liquidate and fire more than 18,000 workers, saying a nationwide strike by bakery workers forced a shutdown of operations. And consumers stocked up, fearing Hostess treats would disappear forever, though it's more likely the brands will be sold off and returned to the market by new owners. Shoppers at Giant Food and Safeway stores in the Baltimore area were buying large quantities of Hostess foods, both grocers reported.

It's really hard for me to imagine people actually hoarding consumer goods. Then again, maybe not.

And lastly, are Twinkies actually nondurable? I think the jury is still out on that one!

Source Data:
Industrial Production: Nondurable Consumer Goods


TJandTheBear said...

Don't forget the importance of Twinkies to Zombieland.

dd said...

My thought too. Then again Obamacare will be so much better off w/o Hostess. Diabetes will drop by 1000%.

Stagflationary Mark said...

TJandTheBear & dd,

Zombieland Rule #32 – Enjoy the Little Things

You can’t spend all your time worrying about where your next Twinkie is going to come from, so follow rule #32 and Enjoy The Little Things.

I am a big believer in Rule #32!

fried said...

This is not in the spirit of the post, but I wish I had stockpiled more cases of dog food. Merrick, which is produced and sourced in Texas had had a per case leap in price from @21.99 to 29.99 over the last 6 months.
I live in a small apt. and ran out of room under the bed, but think what my return would be if I had only found a place for more cases earlier in the year.
Apparently, I will never be in Eddie Lampert's league...or wait, maybe I will.
Best regards,

Stagflationary Mark said...


Wow! That's some price increase.

Here's one of mine.

I like Ensure. It keeps a long time. I bought a LOT of it. It was about $24 for 24 bottles. One day I walked into Costco and it was $29.99. I said, "Aha!" I then realized they gave me 6 more cans. No price increase.

I kept hoarding. Years seemed to go by. Nothing happened.

A few months ago, boom. $29.99 to $33.99. The increase came all at once. All that hoarding paid off in one day.

I've let the hoard run down a bit lately. I figure the next increase probably won't come for another year at best. Never know though!

Oh, the games we play.

Jazzbumpa said...

That's a hell of a break in the curve ca. 1974.

I am more and more of the opinion that the 1974 recession was the big game changer in the American economy.


Stagflationary Mark said...


It was. I can trace quite a few trend failures back to 1974.

Somewhere around 1990 is popular too, as are 2000 and 2007.

I'm sure not seeing a whole lot of unfailures though. Go figure.