I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Dr. Strange Move or How I Learned to Love the Bill
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After a couple of years of disinflation, the Fed changed directions and
started lowering rates. By most measures, the economy had been humming
along near a...
NVIDIA Revisited
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On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a
critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the
stoc...
Stay away from popular tech stocks, part II
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Last August, I wrote a blog post arguing that largest technology and
internet companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft -- would
never grow i...
Updating the HF Indicators
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I posted this over on Seeking Alpha.
Not much good seems to be happening, and I am concerned about the low pace
of construction and a likely end to the sho...
Yes, Well, It's Still a Friday Night
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I doubt anyone is still reading the old stuff, but I have a quiet Friday
night and figured, why not a Friday Night Rock Blog?
I found this one recently (...
For at least 16 years (1980 through 1995) one could very accurately predict what the 10-year average of real median home prices would be simply by knowing the 10-year average of total vehicle miles driven.
Welcome to the new era of wiggle.
Be patient with the song. Just like the chart (and the bridge), it really picks up in the 2nd half, lol.
Gallows humor. Sigh.
Update:
Click to enlarge.
This chart shows where we currently are (without the 10-year moving averages). The red dot is September 2012. We are well below the peak miles driven and the peak real median house price.
5 comments:
As a side note...
1. I'm not convinced vehicle miles traveled will increase much in the future.
2. I'm not convinced real house prices will either.
Put another way, I would not rule out that this chart could work in reverse. Oil? Employment?
I'm not convinced you're wrong. ;-)
TJandTheBear,
I'm not convinced you're wrong to be unconvinced that I'm wrong, lol.
"Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! ;)
The first being never get involved in an oil war in the Middle East.
Rob Dawg,
Oil war? I thought we were there for humanitarian reasons.
Are you sure you are reading the same mainstream media articles that I'm reading?
(Too much sarcasm? I swear I'm going to hit my limit someday.)
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