The following chart shows professional and business services employment. I have added exponential trend lines for the last three expansions and their extrapolations going forward.
Click to enlarge.
40 million professional and business services jobs in 2016!
Oops. I used the blue trend line. I should have probably noticed my folly seeing as how we're more than 16 million jobs below trend. With its r-squared of 0.9986, it seemed like such a sure thing though. That's 108 months of consistent data! I didn't see any reason to look elsewhere on the chart. My bad. Please forgive me. Let's try again!
40 million professional and business services jobs in 2033!
So what if it's 17 years later? The dotcom bust was brutal. Oh, wait. I did it again. I used the purple trend line. With its r-squared of 0.9876, it too seemed like such a sure thing. That's 57 months of consistent data! How was I supposed to know the trend would fail yet again? One more try!
40 million professional and business services jobs in 2036!
Great news! The housing bust only cost us 3 years! Woohoo! R-squared = 0.9980! It's a sure thing! That's 63 months of consistent data! I'm feeling really good about this latest prediction, especially now that the Fed has permanently put an end to all future recessions! All our troubles are finally behind us!
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Professional & Business Services
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