The following chart shows the 4-quarter moving average of real dividends per capita (September 2014 dollars).
Click to enlarge.
The red trend was growing at a 17.9% annual rate before it failed. This compares very favorably to the mere 12.0% growth rate of the blue trend before it failed.
As seen in the r-squared values, the red trend was also much, much more of a "sure thing" than the blue trend. Well, before both trends failed anyway.
I remain a permabear. Some bulls seem to think it is a derogatory comment intended to shame me into submission. I own it. It is what it is. I have no desire to buy stocks again in my lifetime. Based on my long-term beliefs about the direction of this economy, I just can't imagine the conditions that would make me want to do it. I'm retired. I value safety.
Based on the contents of the chart, is it really a big shocker that the long-term treasury market has had a good year?
This is not investment advice.
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