Friday, November 28, 2014

Equity Market-Related Economic Uncertainty (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 200-day moving average of the natural log of the equity market-related economic uncertainty index. A detailed description of this index can be found here. Once again, when using natural logs, constant exponential growth can be seen as a straight line.

Click to enlarge.

As seen in red line of the chart, the uncertainty floor was decaying exponentially heading into the dotcom bust.

So where are we now? As seen in the blue line of the chart, for as far back as this data goes, we have never been more certain about the equity markets (over a 200 day period)! Isn't that wonderful? We are even more certain than we were heading into the Great Recession. This must be a sign of everlasting prosperity for all!

For the first time in recorded history, the Fed has permanently put a stop to bad things happening to risk assets! That's right, just keep moving into risk-free risk assets and nobody gets hurt!

Keep moving? Ah, yes. That's exactly what the Hong Leong Bank of Malaysia wants us to believe. There's even a video! Run! Jump! Bike! Just don't stop or you'll sink.

Running, jumping and biking on 8,000 litres of non-newtonian fluid in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia! Brought to you by Mach by Hong Leong Bank together with We are KIX.

What will those crazy banks think up next!

Seems like excessive sarcasm again? Seriously? It most certainly is not. It is the precise and appropriate level of sarcasm I assure you.

Don't believe me? Look, if I was going for excessive sarcasm then I would have played the following video instead.

When it happened again, the world called on him once more, and no one saw it coming... three... more... times. Now, the one man who made a difference five times before... is about to make a difference... again... only this time... it's different. Tugg Speedman... Scorcher VI... global meltdown... here we go again... again.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

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