Saturday, November 15, 2014

Parabolic Growth Is Not Sustainable over the Long-Term

What Caused the Great Bed-and-Breakfast Inn Employment Earthquake of the 21st Century?

In order to answer that question, let's first take a look at the earthquake in all its grandeur.

The following chart shows the monthly change in employment at bed-and-breakfast inns.

Click to enlarge.

Many economists have theorized on what could have caused such a horrific event.

Some suggest that there was no way anyone could have seen it coming. Things like this just happen from time to time. Others suggest that the Fed was responsible. They should have never raised interest rates like they did. One group of economists blames low inflation. If inflation had been running at 10% then nothing like this could have possibly happened. Another group suggests that we were not allowing our debt to grow at a pace that was conducive to bed-and-breakfast inn maximum employment. Some, we'll call them the fringe economists to be kind, even blame conspiracies surrounding 9/11. As we sort through the rubble and deal with the aftershocks of this ground shattering event, one thing is clear. Economists may never really know what actually caused it.

That is why I have brought in a seismic geologist with a strong physics background to offer a theory. I offered him the following chart as a starting point.

Click to enlarge.

After looking at the chart for two to three seconds (allowing the part of his brain that processes pattern recognition to activate), this is what he exclaimed.

Good God man! Parabolic growth is not sustainable over the long-term!!

Of course, it's just a scientific theory based on a few seconds of analysis. There's no way we could use an unproven theory slapped together within mere moments to describe economics. The field of economic instability is far too complex for that.

That's why I recommend constructing a special laboratory deep within the Arizona desert that will house thousands of economists. Nothing but the best and brightest will compose the think tank! What will be their primary focus? They will be thinking about what causes economies to tank. Genius! A true think... tank! And why would I suggest such a thing? If they are secluded within such a facility, then maybe, just maybe, they won't be on CNBC telling us how wonderful parabolic growth can be!

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases

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