Monday, November 17, 2014

Breweries: My Nomination for the 2013 Understatement of the Year Award

July 11, 2013
Craft Beer Brewers Feel Growing Pains Of Industry Boom

“There’s growth, and then there’s exponential growth,” he said.

That's my nomination! I hope it isn't too late to get it in before the voting!

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of brewery, winery, and distillery employment (in thousands).

Click to enlarge.

It's not just growth! It's not just exponential growth! Heck, it's no longer even parabolic growth! That's right, we're "permanently" free of that pesky parabolic trend channel that was holding us back!

Let's see if we can find some unbiased research so we can see how healthy all this unprecedented growth really is. Ah, here's something from the chief economist of the Brewers Association. He has to be at least as unbiased regarding breweries as the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors is when it comes to housing. Right? Perfect!

September 25, 2014

Hey! You are freaking me out with all that uppercase! And closings! And problems! Calm down!

Craft brewery closings have been getting a bit more attention in the beer press recently. Although high visibility closings are worth noting, I think there are numerous reasons why the health of the craft brewing industry has never been better.

Closings? How can there be any closings with employment growth skyrocketing higher! Makes no sense!

This is a sign of market competition, NOT a sign of problems in the craft beer market.

NOT is both uppercased and bolded? Stop it with the negative textual screaming already! My blood pressure is rising!

With 3,000 breweries, many of them competing in similar markets, more are going to close than when the U.S. only had 1,000 breweries, but this shouldn’t be a cause for alarm.

Shouldn't be a cause for alarm? Look buddy, I just wanted to hear something optimistic for a change, on the off chance I wish to put my entire life savings into the opening of a new brewery! I'm not the alarmist! You are!

Why couldn't you just stick to the standard story? They just aren't making any more land for breweries! Get in now before you're priced out forever! Now that I could believe (if I wasn't being sarcastic, of course)!

This is not brewery investment advice. If I was to offer that, then you'd hear a sarcastic forehead whacking on the desk, not once, not twice, but three times! But do you hear it? No. The microphone has been disabled.

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases


Stagflationary Mark said...

It is mathematically impossible for brewery, winery, and distillery employment to stay in that parabolic trend channel over the long-term, much less stay above it.

I can't help but wonder how many other illusions of long-term employment growth stability this economy has generated under ZIRP.

Once the unemployment rate hits bottom (whenever that is), we'll certainly start to find out.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Beer Gut or Beer Glut?

October 31, 2014
Budweiser profits pinched by Russia

While many believe that beer is recession proof, that has not been the case in Russia. The downturn in the Russian economy, driven by falling oil prices and Western sanctions, has taken a toll on beer consumption.

Many believe beer is recession proof?

U.S. sales volumes were down 3.7% in the third quarter.

Beer doesn't even appear to be expansion proof!

Ba dum tssshhh