Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Retail Bakery Employment

August 1, 2013
A Ride on the 800,000-Year Roller Coaster

Measurements from bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice-cores reveal dramatic peaks and valleys in Earth’s climate system over the last 800,000 years: atmospheric carbon dioxide over the Antarctic drops by 100 parts per million over 100,000 years going into a glacial period, then rises steeply over less than 10,000 years as the Earth reaches the end of a glacial period. What drives that roller coaster, and causes its “sawtooth” shape, is a longstanding line of questioning that researchers at MIT’s Darwin Project have now driven off the beaten path.

My bad. This was supposed to be a post about the economics of retail bakery employment, not hard science. Sorry about that! I must have gotten distracted by the roller coaster. So, without further ado, let's get right to the point.

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of retail bakery employment. I have added two "sure thing" exponential trend lines for your amusement and/or terror.

Click to enlarge.

The "sure thing" trend in blue lasted 45 months before it died a slow agonizing death. In sharp contrast, the "sure thing" trend in red has lasted 56 months so far! Nothing can stop it! We're going to bake our way to prosperity! To infinity and beyond!

Bubbles, dramatic peaks, dramatic valleys, steep rises, and sawtooth shapes for the win! Stable and enduring prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about.

So much sarcasm, so little time.

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases

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