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This chart shows the estimated number of subprime loans outstanding divided by that state's population.
Nevada tops the list at 5.39% (and is shown as pure red). In other words, 5.39% of the population has a subprime mortgage loan apparently. That's fairly impressive if you keep in mind that a typical family would generally only need one at most.
Next comes Arizona (4.07%), Florida (3.91%), Colorado (3.36%), Maryland (3.0%), Utah (2.90%), and California (2.83%).
See Also:
Calculated Risk: JEC On Subprime Crisis
JEC Posts
Source Data:
JEC: The Subprime Lending Crisis
U.S. Census Bureau: State & County QuickFacts (2006)
11 comments:
Anyway you can get a household count rather than population? I don't know how off-hand or I'd just give it to you.
Allanf,
Great comment!
I've got the data as of 2006 (which is no better than my population data anyway). I'll try to put something up in the coming days.
Oops, the household data I have is only good as of 2000. Nevermind. I'm still looking though.
I found some data so I'll be posting a new chart soon.
Rather than post a new chart, let me simply describe the results (the new chart would be very similar to this one).
Estimated Outstanding Subprime Loans as a percent of households:
Nevada: 14.36%
Arizona: 11.27%
Florida: 9.97%
Utah: 9.08%
Colorado: 8.65%
California: 8.48%
Maryland: 8.06%
Utah and California moved up a bit in the rankings.
I found the household data at the following website.
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en
Thanks for asking! I now have more data I can look at.
Wow, those are some big numbers.
My sense of things (I really out to head back over to CR and re-look it up) is the sub-prime default rate is currently in the high teens. I reckon sub-prime foreclosures hit north of 20%, maybe 25% if things get really ugly by this time next year. So that gives an overall foreclosure rate of about 2%. I think I recall in the 90's the foreclosure rate was about 2% in the hardest hit S. California. So, assuming the prime foreclosure repeats the 90's experience, and sub-prime is effectively its own DC offset, we are in store for 4-5% foreclosure rates in the hardest hit states.
Probably worth checking my math out on this one... I need to figure out when to cover the bank shorts. This last year I've left tremendous amounts of money on the table being too conservative and taking profits way too soon. Perhaps when the national foreclosure rate hits 4-5% is the time to cover?
BTW, I enjoy your blog. The 50% dead pan humor and 50% info-geek charts is a perfect mix. I started coming around after your incessent shilling in the CR comments. ;-)
BTW, I took a look at the census site. I wonder if using the number of owner occupied housing units is a better denominator? One presumes non-oo cannot get a sub-prime loan. Therefore, the number of subprime loans / number of oo housing units should give the rough percent of sub-prime mortgages.
Thoughts? It has a big effect on high rental states like California and Nevada. Oregon and Washington not as much, but still significant to my eye. It does yield absolute higher percents of sub-prime loans:
State | % vs. OO | % vs. all occupied housing units
Wash 9.8% | 6.3%
Oregon 9.4% | 5.9%
Cal 14.5% | 8.6%
Nevada 23% | 14.3%
Florida 14% | 10.1%
Hey AllanF,
You must be at the wrong site. I only do "bed pan" and "dead man" [walking] humor here. No dead pan! No bed man!
Maybe I've just watched too many house flipping shows and read too much about giving loans to anyone with a pulse (fogging a mirror optional). Any thoughts on how hard it would have been for a "non-oo" to get a subprime loan? I don't.
As for the shameful shilling, I just need to find a way to make myself a smaller target than the economy and/or the government. I had no idea that my links were able to cause such emotional distress. *tongue in cheek*
In any event, CR made it very clear to me that he doesn't have a problem with my posts and that's good enough for me. :)
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I suppose your "non-oo" thing makes sense though. It is hard to imagine too many renters being house flippers. I think. I still don't know. It is Nevada that heads the list, right? Maybe you flip for a few hours, return to your hotel room, head down to the blackjack table, ....
Just a theory. Like I would know!
Regards non-oo, I reckon there is some sub-prime financing of it, people lieing that they are going to live some place they intend to rent, but probably not that would show-up in the census stats. Lieing as such would put the unit into the oo bin when the census does their data gathering.
In any case, I don't think it changes the order of states relative to each other very much, sub-prime was rather wide-spread. I think what it does is shows how bad the foreclosure rate is likely to become.
As for the shilling, I didn't mind it either. After all, the nagging got me to come here. Well that and the quality of your comments, no amount of nagging by a dumb-ass will get me to click a hyper-link, but I thought I would rib you about it a little bit.
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