Tuesday, February 16, 2010

The 5 Stages of the Chinese Real Estate Bubble?

FEATURE-Social, economic dilemma for China as home prices soar

1. The Bubble Is Desirable

Analysts say, however, that the government may not be able to rein in the property sector too aggressively since it is a main pillar of the economy with its investments accounting for over 10 percent of gross domestic product.

Real estate was a main pillar of America too. The government sure wanted everyone to own homes.

2. The Bubble Is Fueled

Due to a lack of other investment options and as real bank deposit rates turn negative, more of China's accumulated wealth and savings are likely to pour into real estate in many top cities, potentially exacerbating inflation and home prices for the grassroots.

The real interest rate on the 5-Year TIPS was roughly 1% when I turned bearish in 2004. It's even lower now. Our housing market still crashed though.

3. The Bubble Becomes a "Sure Thing"

"But if we have any surplus money, we'll invest it in another flat," added Zhou, who runs a printed circuit board factory with her husband in Songgang, a gritty town in Shenzhen's western suburbs. "We'll wait till after the lunar new year ... After that I think the market will rise again in the long term for sure."

Most were fairly convinced that real estate could never fall here either. That list would even include Ben Bernanke. At the very peak of the market he claimed that there was no housing bubble to go bust.

4. The Bubble Can No Longer Expand

"You will find that the ratio (in China) is very, very high. (It's) very unaffordable because a lot of cities -- we're talking about 60 percent to 70 percent of their monthly household income -- needs to be used for monthly mortgages," said Wee Liat Lee, an analyst at Nomura International.

100 percent is pretty much the theoretical maximum. I would also argue that the 100 percent ceiling has probably never been tested on this planet. Ever.

5. The Bubble Eventually Pops

"The central government is trying to get the price down for a short period of time. They're squeezing out the people with money to allow the middle class to be able to afford (property) again," said Andy Xie, an independent China economist.

In my opinion, someone in the Chinese government finally realizes that they've gone too far. It's all damage control from here on out.

These are just my opinions of course. Those betting heavily on the "sure thing" global inflation story and/or the Chinese economic miracle story better hope that I am wrong.

12 comments:

watchtower said...

"Those betting heavily on the "sure thing" global inflation story and/or the Chinese economic miracle story better hope that I am wrong."

My God man, are you suggesting Jim Rogers could be wrong?!

Sacrilege I tell ya, sacrilege.

"Investment legend Jim Rogers says that China’s overall economy doesn’t represent a bubble, though he acknowledges that some urban real estate is overheated there."

You see Mark, it's only overheated in "some" urban areas, China gubment officials see the problem and are on top of it like a duck on a June bug.

"The government has recently announced increases in reserve requirements and interest rates."

http://tinyurl.com/yg6btpd

Jim 'Dandy To China's Rescue' Rogers fans unite!

: )

mab said...

Stag, watchtower,

FWIW, I think Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and Marc Faber are wrong. Way wrong. What part of contracting credit don't they understand?

We've just had decade of massive inflation as measured by credit. I just don't see that continuing given how debt saturated our eCONomy is, especially at the household level.

Admittedly, the Fed & the Government are definitely resorting to extreme measures to prevent deflation. But preventing deflation is NOT the same as causing high inflation let alone hyper-inflation.

Bernanke said he wouldn't allow a deflationary bust - that makes sense. He also said he won't allow high inflation (as measured by CPI) - that makes sense too.

As I see it, Bernanke will stick to his playbook. The damage is done, more stupidity will only make matters worse and Bernanke knows it.

Schiff, Rogers and Faber all say the Fed will destroy the dollar. I don't see it. That line of thinking makes ZERO sense. Imo, the dollar is one of the most valuable franchises in the world. What else am I to believe - that Coca Cola is going to ruin their franchise by making Coke taste like crap?

I see slow growth ahead. Under that scenario, no way would I be a buyer of commodities after their big run up over the last decade.

Stagflationary Mark said...

watchtower,

"My God man, are you suggesting Jim Rogers could be wrong?!"

Who are you going to trust?

1. A professional money manager who loves wearing bow ties and has moved to China?
2. An anonymous blogger on the Internet who loves video games, owns a parrot, and rarely shaves?

Stick with the crazy person(s)! That's all I am saying! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"I see slow growth ahead. Under that scenario, no way would I be a buyer of commodities after their big run up over the last decade."

The herd hasn't even embraced commodities yet though, except for the last-in-line pension funds, high risk hedge funds, and/or an undisclosed number of Chinese pig farmers. How many of the latter could there possibly be?

watchtower said...

"FWIW, I think Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and Marc Faber are wrong. Way wrong."

"...and/or an undisclosed number of Chinese pig farmers. How many of the latter could there possibly be?"


OMG, they've gotten to both of you!!!

Stagflationary Mark said...

watchtower,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-jzblCbsuA

mab said...

Stag,

and/or an undisclosed number of Chinese pig farmers. How many of the latter could there possibly be?

Pig farmers and metals have a long history in China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_iron

The Chinese were making pig iron by the later Zhou Dynasty (1122–256 BC).

Hu knew?

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Hu knew?"

Fu Lu!

Guide Picks - Top 10 Lucky Symbols

http://chineseculture.about.com/library/picks/aatp_luckysymbols.htm

1. Fu = Good Luck
2. Lu = Prosperity

They are the top 2 luckiest symbols.

You can fu some of the lu all of the time, and all of the lu some of the time, but you cannot...

No that's not it. I'm looking for something optimistic.

The more lu we think we get the more fu'd we actually are?

Perfect!

mab said...

Stag,

No that's not it. I'm looking for something optimistic.

Yu tu? How about "Wu Hu"! Ooops, the Wu Hu are actually a non-Chinese tribe that were invloved in an uprising some years back. Not positive at all.

Oh well, I do have some "good" news to share:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Study-States-must-fill-1-apf-2540769337.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

States only need to fill a $1 trillion pension gap! I was worried the gap would be bigger given the huge bonuses Wall St. is once again skimming out of the system. Thank goodness for quantitative (dis)easing.

And here is some more good news! I know where the missing $1 trillion is. It's in Manhattan real estate. Seriously. Over the past decade or so, I figure Wall St. has skimmed an extra trillion out of the system and that trillion found it's way into NY metro area real estate.

Now for the bad news (hey, for every yin, there is a yang). I don't see any way the states will ever get their money back. The states are going to have to make their CONNEDstituents pay twice - once for Wall St bonuses and once for their actual pensions. BU HU!

Another happy thought. Debt money has serious flaws. Especially when the system (Wall St.) has over-promised and under-delivered. Just think. If states were to make claim to their Manahattan real estate "assets", the assets would lose value and so would the claims.

At least your area 5.1 assets are NOT someone elses's liability. That's a no-joke Woohoo!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Yu tu?"

You Tube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B10O4qUR7tY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Townsend

...with the stipulation that each pensioner would be required to spend the money within 30 days. The idea was to end the Depression through consumer spending by way of ending poverty among the aged.

Are we there yet?

Anonymous said...

You need to see this about China.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk&feature=player_embedded

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

Thanks for the link.

I have seen it. :)