Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up
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From BofA:
Since our update last week, *1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q/q
saar*. [Apr 19th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left ou...
7 hours ago
Posts
13 comments:
Sorry. Just saw an opportunity for my shortest post ever and could not resist.
Here's a bonus sarcastic oh oh.
April 15, 2010
Cramer: Bull market builds despite skepticism
As a bull...
February 29, 2000
Cramer: The Winners of the New World
We have a phrase on Wall Street. It's called raising the bar. If you can raise the bar, or brighten the outlook for your company, if you can see your growth accelerating, your stock will go higher and you will be given the currency to expand, acquire and do whatever you want. That's the secret of the quintessential New Economy stock: Cisco (CSCO). This giant networker has the ability to control its own destiny. It can, as my colleague Adam Lashinsky says at TSC, buy any company it wants to. It can pay any price. Because it has a currency that it better than U.S. dollars: It has Cisco stock. It can do that because it raises the bar every quarter!
Cisco had something better than U.S. dollars. It had Cisco stock.
Cisco Stock
According to Yahoo, Cisco's adjusted close (adjusted for dividends and splits) was $66.10 on 2/29/00. It now trades at $27.21.
That's a 59% loss in nominal terms while the cost of most goods and services have risen 28% (based on the CPI-U). Oops.
The sad part is that Cisco wasn't even one of the 10 winners of his new world. Too bad.
The Worst Moments Of Jim Cramer's Career
6. "The Winners of the New World".
On February 29th, 2000, Jim Cramer gave his "top 10 stocks" that are "going to make it in the New World".
This turned out to be a phenomenally bad list that would have incinerated the portfolio of any investor who was following along and buying. The ten stocks were:
SVNX, ARBA, ISLD, EXDS, INSP, INKT, MERQ, SNRA, VRSN, VRTS
Ouch.
It is obvious that housing was not a big part of the economy at all. Everything is on fire and even the unemployed (still +9%) have cash to spend. Only really another 10-15% until the S&P hits old highs (I leave out the blow off top last 5%). Unreal. I guess nobody knows anuthing about the economy.
"America is Back! We make Crap up as We Go Along!"
Unreal.
There's a link to a Chanos interview on that uh-oh page, he talks Greece, China, and Enron.
Here's a quote from the comment section I liked:
"Unfortunately, our current Wall Street executives were not prosecuted like the Enron executives. Apparently if enough banking executives commit securities fraud at the same time it isn't actually a crime but rather a "crisis" that requires a massive government bailout."
That about sums it up.
Well, large company profits have rebounded.
The only problem is that large company employment isn't rebounding!
M.O.M.,
As usual, Fortune does a losy job of explaining the rise in profits at big companies. For the S&P 500, ~ 85% of the yoy profit increases were from financials. This money did not come from productive lending, rather, it came from artificially low interest rates and accounting rule changes.
We've seen this balance sheet horror movie before. The Fed lowers interest rates and voila! financials magically produce enormous gains (and bonuses).
I just have one question. After ZIRP, where will the future ponzi gains come from?
America is getting poorer. Too much ponzi debt.
You guys need to clue in, its over. All is well. Get strapped in for the next rocket ride until nothing is left to back anything up. Buy stocks if you like, 20% is there in a year if you want it. When this one goes bad, well, it wont for a long time.
I'm just sitting back enjoying the comments this evening.
Let's summarize.
"America is Back! We make Crap up as We Go Along!"
Punch Line Drum
The only problem is that large company employment isn't rebounding!
Punch Line Drum
We've seen this balance sheet horror movie before.
Punch Line Drum
You guys need to clue in, its over. All is well.
Punch Line Drum
I was at Costco doing my part today. We hoarded 3 kitty litter containers and were pondering buying some more when another customer pointed to another cart. He thought it was a good idea. Just then, another customer offered her cart to help us out.
We ended up buying 180 pounds of kitty litter for $44.34 (plus tax). Behold the power of higher gasoline prices to properly motivate us into buying more stuff in fewer trips, again. It reminded me of my rice hoarding escapades before rice hoarding became a popular activity.
It also didn't hurt that there was very little left in the store after we did that. Kitty litter hoarders of the world unite!!
Punch Line Drum
I also have an update on my garbage bag hoard. Costco has raised their prices on the bags in this picture to over $12.49.
8.6% Return on Investment!
That brings my return on investment to 26%! It's almost like plastic garbage bags are a petroleum product! Who knew?
Punch Line Drum
Here's a bonus thought for the day.
My local Wal-Mart once had an automated self-service checkout.
It's gone now.
Score one for humans over automation. I suspect that robots haven't mastered the concept of "fifty-finger" discounts yet.
The Five-Finger Discount
It's more like the 50-finger discount these days, as organized teams make shoplifting a growth "business."
This fits in nicely with America's other top growth businesses. Let's see. There's prisons, payday loans, and investment speculation. Risky behavior sure is rewarded.
Stag, GYSC,
You guys need to clue in, its over. All is well.
I have to admit it does seem like things are getting back to normal - banks are once again "earning" huge bonues for losing lots other people's money.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aVfu18KRVZV8&pid=20601087
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/Goldman-Sachs-property-fund-down-to-last-30-mn-Report/articleshow/5815187.cms
At one time these funds (and their managers) looked like winners.
Also, WorldCON, Enron, LU, NT, AIG, FRE, FNM, C, BAC, CFC, MS, LEH, BSC, WAC, WAMU, etc. all had huge "earnings" until the world realized that the earnings were fiction. Then trillions of illusory wealth vanished.
Here's just one of many reasons I'm skeptical of financial earnings. If you look at the NIPA accounts, The United States got poorer last year. We had a negative national savings rate (-2.5%). That's an aggregate savings measure, not just the household number that gets bandied about. The last time the United States had a negative national savings rate was during the 1930s Great Depression.
We'll see how real these earnings are when the tide from the Fed/Gov't sugar rush goes back out. (BMM = bad mixed metaphor)
mab,
We'll see how real these earnings are when the tide from the Fed/Gov't sugar rush goes back out. (BMM = bad mixed metaphor)
I'm a big fan of bad mixed metaphors! Not so much of a fan of the crash that comes after a sugar rush though. An ounce of prevention is worth at least another brick in the whole nine yards.
Stag,
An ounce of prevention is worth at least another brick in the whole nine yards.
Civil charges for Goldman? We'll no doubt hear the "sophisticated" investor defense. Ya know, the legalism that allows Wall St. to loot Main St. via a middle man.
After Goldman is cleared we'll be told it's water over the dam underwater house.
mab,
We could stand here and talk about Goldman until the cows turn blue, but I wouldn't be caught dead investing in that company with a ten-foot pole. They burned the midnight oil from both ends. $100 oil might seem like a falling off a piece of cake, but this is no time to step up to the plate and lay all your cards on the table. The fan is seriously going to hit the roof someday.
People are convinced the bull market is for real, but I say just grab that bull by the tail and look him in the eye. That bull is like a duck out of water! It sticks out like a sore throat.
I hate to shoot the wind out of investors' saddles, but finding decent long-term returns in this economy is like looking for a needle in a hayride.
I've gone cold turkey when it comes to betting on stocks with egg on their face. Let's just put it that way. This economy is suffering from a detached rectum and the sooner people realize it the sooner we can get our collective asses out of the nooses.
My Favorite Mixed Metaphors
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