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Here's a crazy thought experiment.
Let's assume for the moment that this chart has merit.
Let's assume for the moment that ZIRP will end within 3 years.
Neither of these are a given of course. It's just a crazy thought experiment!
How many milliseconds will it take before we slide back into ZIRP again?
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Retail Trade Employees per Capita
Mish: An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013...
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Full-Time Employees per Capita
3 comments:
Perhaps the trend has already failed and you just don't have enough data points to see it yet.
Who Struck John,
You snuck that in ahead of me! I think that's a great observation. I was just about to post the following.
As a side note, I am not predicting that we will reach the red trend line in July 2016 and that is when things will fall apart again.
I'm just not that optimistic, lol. Sigh.
In all seriousness, in my opinion the long-term trend is now down. What would happen if most traders start to figure that out? Wait until the last possible second to press the sell button on their margin accounts? I think not.
On the other hand, surely we're smarter at playing musical chairs than the savvy Chinese. Right? Um, throw me a bone here. I'm looking for a reason to believe! ;)
All in until the Olympics! Then take profits! It is a cunning plan!
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