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April 2, 2015
Will the Stock Market Correct or Completely Collapse in 2015?
Over the last 90 years, the stock market has on average returned 7% annualized gains.
Over the last 65 years, the total debt in the system has on average grown 8% per year. What was once just $398 billion in 1949 has mushroomed to $58.7 trillion today.
Obviously not all years will have a positive gain, but when averaged over many years, it is reasonable to expect an annual return of 7% from the stock market.
Obviously not all years will have a positive gain, but when averaged over many years, it is reasonable to expect 8% growth in the debt markets. Doesn't even matter what wages do!
I do so love the rear view mirror. Makes predicting the future so much easier! Just stay off the sidewalks when I'm driving, especially near roads which curve.
This concludes the sarcasm report, for those times when crock of $#@% reports are overkill. ;)
Schedule for Week of December 22, 2024
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Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
The key economic report this week is November New Home Sales.
*----- Monday, December 23rd -----*
8:30 AM: *Chicago Fe...
3 hours ago
5 comments:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=16mQ
blue is total hours worked in this great land
red is YOY growth of working-age population + YOY growth of woman participation rate, right axis
Good thing we'll be getting growth from robots from here on out, 'cuz people sure as hell are tapped out.
Troy,
The best thing about robots is that you can program them to buy on the dips every single time! It will put an end to all financial panics!! ;)
Debt that can be rolled over is really an asset, so that means we can have near 8% growth perpetually.
Oh, I clicked on the $58.7 trillion link. That looks like it was (is) the mother of all parabolas.
Was in Portlandia area over the weekend. The wine country is booming there. Hard to imagine there ever being another economic "challenge" when you're surrounded by so many happy (and slightly intoxicated) people from the top 20%.
Anonymous,
I recall walking my dog around a local lake about a year before the housing bust. It was the summer. The sun was out here in Seattle. Great day. Made me wonder if I was wrong not to be optimistic.
Then it sort of dawned on me. It was sunny during the Great Depression tool. It might not look that way when looking at the old black and white footage of the era though.
Further, it's hard to create a "dust bowl" without sunny days. Go figure.
Debbie Downer moment on a gorgeous day, lol. Sigh.
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