Saturday, January 23, 2021

My Long-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well-Anchored

 

This is a can of petite diced tomatoes. Target will currently sell it to us for 49 cents. It’s not on sale. That’s the normal price.

If we spend $35, they will ship it to us for free. If we buy 72 cans, that would cost us $35.28. Each 14.5oz can weighs almost exactly 1 pound (due to the extra weight of the empty can). That means the total shipment weighs a whopping 72 pounds (expect some dented cans).

At the beginning of the pandemic, we also paid 49 cents for these cans at Target. How is it that pandemic hoarding, intermittent shortages, and massive monetary stimulus have not caused the price to go up? How can Target continue to ship us goods this cheap even as online shipping demand has skyrocketed?

It’s not just petite diced tomatoes. I’m only using this as an example. It’s pretty much everything we’ve stocked up on from Target, Costco, Walmart, and Amazon since the beginning of the pandemic.

In related news, it’s not too late to read the 2008 Hyperinflation Special Report on Shadowstats. For what it is worth, I’m personally waiting until their $175 subscription price starts inflating. I need to see them put their money where their mouth is. Even a token one cent increase to $175.01 would attract my attention. Is it too much to ask? It’s been the same price for more than a decade. In my opinion, it’s very difficult to sell a hyperinflation story without at least one subscription price increase in 12+ years!

Our government is definitely taking a “shock and awe” approach to thwarting deflation. Will it be enough to counter the increased pace of automation due to a pandemic though? Robots don’t get sick, nor do they require living wages. Based on Japan’s “success” at thwarting deflation, my long-term bet is on the robots. Their present seems to be our future.


January 1, 2021
NHK World - Japan: Autonomous delivery robots hit Japanese streets

A robot knocks on your door to deliver a freshly brewed cup of coffee, which you ordered just minutes earlier with one tap on your smartphone. This vision of the future could soon turn into reality as Japanese companies have started testing autonomous delivery robots on public streets. This comes as the need for social distancing amid the coronavirus pandemic has pushed up demand for autonomous delivery services.

2 comments:

Who Struck John said...

Japan has discovered something interesting about robots: they don't vote. So they don't care if you relocate their job into the United States, on the opposite side of currency risk and trade barrier risk.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Good point! Here’s something else they found out. If you hire a thousand robots to move boxes around in your warehouse, you really only need to train one of them. They are really good at copying the behaviors of their robotic coworkers!

Of course, this could really be a huge problem if you train your first robot poorly. You know, like teaching it to destroy all imperfect lifeforms in your warehouse without first realizing how imperfect humans can be.

Captain Kirk vs. NOMAD