Posts
Brink: The Coming Baby Bust Caused by COVID-19
We’re already down 500,000 to 600,000 births per year from the recent peak in 2007, so now you’re starting to talk about approaching a million fewer babies born per year.
The following chart shows the fertility rate since 2007.
According to the United Nations Population Division, our fertility rate needs to be 2.1 just to maintain our population. Our recent 2007 peak was barely adequate, and it's been downhill ever since.
Over the long-term, those expecting a booming economy and higher real yields on investments will most likely be sorely disappointed. Welcome to Japan. Prepare for endless ZIRP. Brace for continued fertility rate disappointments as more and more come to realize the dire situation we find ourselves in.
For those who thought Trump would make America great again, you might want to look closely at the fertility rate since he was elected in 2016. Chaos and incompetence at the top only led to more uncertainty and divisiveness at the bottom. Chaos, incompetence, uncertainty, and divisiveness are not exactly great underlying conditions for fruitfulness and multiplication, if you catch my meaning.
4 comments:
They only we have that Japan doesn't is a more liberal immigration policy. Maybe that will get us an extra 0.5% inflation and economic growth over Japan. Probably not enough to make much difference.
July 14, 2020
BBC: Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born
Countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population and compensate for falling fertility rates.
However, this stops being the answer once nearly every country's population is shrinking.
Meanwhile...
I will build a great wall -- and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me --and I'll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words. - Trump, June 2015
It’s not as bad as it sounds. Nobody tears down great walls better than Trump, and he’ll tear them down very inexpensively, and he will make Mexico pay for it. Just need to keep him out of jail and re-elect him in 2024! ;)
Don't need to wait for Trump; the Central American caravans are already warming up. If AMLO opens the southern Mexican border, your next crop of low-skill labor will be here just in time for pandemic recovery. (Some innoculation required.)
I’m of mixed feelings on this.
If our goal is to reduce our total debt per capita, why can’t we just declare robots to be people?
I’m not asking because I want to “adopt” a small robot to do do household chores and declare my new robot child as a dependent on my taxes. That’s just a bonus!
Post a Comment