Thursday, January 20, 2022

Risk Off Is Not a Recent Development

The following chart shows how utilities are performing relative to the Nasdaq over the past 6 months. Note that utilities have been outperforming the Nasdaq since Halloween, which oddly enough is the same time I decided to go on a diet. Pure coincidence? Or is it all part of the same risk off mindset? I cannot say.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

First they came for the Nasdaq
And I spoke out
Because the Internet really needs more bloggers stating the obvious


Here's something less obvious. Next they came for utilities? Interest rates have risen. The spread between utility dividends and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is dangerously narrow. Those who bought utilities as a bond replacement (such as myself) should be finding less value there now. For what it is worth, it is that narrowing spread in "safe stocks" that triggered my flight to safety just 10 days ago. The situation has definitely not improved.

Plenty of risk out there and not much value. Doesn't feel at all like it did through most of 2021. The headwind to tailwind ratio has increased dramatically.

5 comments:

Mr Slippery said...

Frankly, I was expecting a worse open in stocks today. But the day is not over. A crash into the close again might trigger some phone calls from Mr. Margin.

As long as crypto crashes harder, I will enjoy the ride. Bitcoin down 7% today, ethereum down 10%. I'm sure someone put their life savings in an 8-bit NFT image of a tulip. At least I'm not that guy.

Stagflationary Mark said...

My sleep quality is crashing with the stock market, and I’m not even in it!

I’m binge watching Netflix to cope but it isn’t working. Not their shows. Their stock. It’s down 20% today.

https://youtu.be/K_CuaSNjrJA

Who Struck John said...

We have a LOOOONNNNGGGGG way to go to reach 2019 numbers.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

I’m also a LOOOONNNNGGGGG way from buying the dips. Way too much downside risk left for my liking, even with long-term Treasury yields plummeting.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Blues Song Idea: Final Hour of Trading

It’s been a recurring theme this week. *cringe*