Click to enlarge.The black line represents 5 year nominal treasury yields adjusted for the inflation over the following 5 years. Note that the line stops 5 years ago. We do not yet know what the real yield of a 5 year nominal bond bought recently is. It depends on what inflation does before the bond matures.The blue line represents 5 year TIPS yields. They have the inflation adjustment built in so we do know what the real yield will be at the time of purchase.If the 1965 to 1980 time period is any indicator, real yields can stay low for a very long time. All it would take is a weak economy (an economy where money cannot be easily be made off of money).
For what it is worth, I am firmly in the weak economy over the long-term camp. Unlike some supposed experts, I believe that a 1980s and/or 1990s economy will *never* miraculously reappear. As seen in the following chart, there are too many headwinds. Those drawing on historical data to predict the future seem to ignore what the chart is clearly saying.
This time is different.
Click to enlarge.Source Data:St. Louis Fed: 5-Year TreasurySt. Louis Fed: 5-Year TIPSSt. Louis Fed: CPI
First the bad news.January 10, 2012Twinkies Maker Preparing for Chapter 11 FilingThe privately held Irving, Texas, company, which employs roughly 19,000 people and carries more than $860 million in debt, has been facing a cash squeeze amid high labor costs and rising prices for sugar, flour and other ingredients, according to people familiar with the matter....Sales of Hostess's signature Twinkies have recently declined a bit while the overall bakery snacks category has been about flat.Declining sales? Rising costs? How very stagflationary of them.November 4, 2007Twinkie ProsperityDeclining sales? Rising costs? How very stagflationary of them.Here's the good news. We weren't in a recession in November 2007 and we aren't now!December 1, 2008It's official: Recession since Dec. '07NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy.
Sounds like a great idea. Right?Let's use hindsight to see how well it is working.All Employees: Total nonfarm (PAYEMS)December 2001: 130,723,000December 2011: 131,900,0001,177,000 total nonfarm payroll jobs were added over the previous 10 years.The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds ItDecember 14, 2001: $5,875,869,812,211.80December 14, 2011: $15,051,286,197,149.79That's a $9,175,416,384,937.99 increase in total public debt outstanding over the previous 10 years.How much government debt was added per created nonfarm payroll job?$9,175,416,384,937.99 / 1,177,000 = $7,795,595.91January 6, 2012Economists React: ‘Step in the Right Direction’ for Jobs– December’s employment report was better than expected across the board. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to interpret today’s number, just check off the boxes: a pick-up in nonfarm payrolls, another drop in the unemployment rate, a tick up in hours worked, and a mild gain in hourly earnings. Today’s report extends the steady diet of solid economic data, and suggests the US economy built up momentum as we closed out the year. –Neil Dutta, Bank of America Merrill LynchThere you have it. We don't have to be rocket scientists.July 1, 2011As shuttle program winds down, NASA layoffs loomBut for many shuttle workers, the very last flight of the 30-year shuttle program will truly be the beginning of the end. NASA expects to undergo a big round of layoffs that will significantly reduce the shuttle workforce, which currently stands at about 6,700 people, said John Shannon, NASA's shuttle program officer.September 23, 2011Neil Armstrong: US space program 'embarrassing'Armstrong decried NASA's downward spiral. "We will have no American access to, and return from, low Earth orbit and the International Space Station for an unpredictable length of time in the future," he said. "For a country that has invested so much for so long to achieve a leadership position in space exploration and exploitation, this condition is viewed by many as lamentably embarrassing and unacceptable."
Buy Kodak now or forever be priced out.Eastman Kodak Co. (EK)Last Trade: 0.47
Trade Time: 4:01PM EST
Change: Down 0.1845 (28.19%)January 4, 2012Kodak prepares for Chapter 11 filing: reportKodak warned in November that it might not survive 2012 if it was unable to secure $500 million in new debt or sell its patents. The company's cash had been shrinking as sales of its consumer products have failed to keep up with its heavy cost base, which includes employees and offices around the globe.
January 1, 2012Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save CurrencyKnowledge = PowerTime = MoneyPower = Work / TimeSince we know this to be true, we can therefore derive a few more formulas from it.Currency = Money = TimeThat's pretty much self evident. Now let us substitute knowledge for power.Knowledge = Work / TimeThis implies that if you work overtime then you and/or your boss will gain knowledge and/or power. Makes sense. Now let us substitute currency for time.Knowledge = Work / CurrencyNow let us rearrange the formula and solve for currency.Currency = Work / KnowledgeYes! This makes perfect sense. You can get rich if you either work harder or have less knowledge.And finally, let us use what we've learned to adjust the first article's headline and make sense of it.Euro leaders are buying currency to save work (over knowledge).Who would doubt that? It's crystal clear. That's what the math shows!What a joke this has become.Update:From the article:“It is vital that eurozone policymakers get a real grip on matters quickly.”I understand the theory here, but surely a fake grip on matters drawn out over many months would be good enough as long as nobody spills the bea... Um, oops.Real grip! Of course! In no way am I attempting to imply a sarcastic unjustified eye roll here.
January 1, 2012Family's teriyaki restaurant is feelin' the love"Opening a restaurant is like having a baby; it's a big commitment," said Soo Yim.Closing a restaurant is like having a nearly endless supply of babies; it's a big commitment.LA County Department of Public Health - Weekly Restaurant ClosuresBACIAMI, 139 1/2 N LARCHMONT BLVD, LOS ANGELES, CA, 90004
- Date Closed: September 14, 2011
- Date Reopened: September 16, 2011
- Reason for Closure:
Vermin Harborage
Vermin infestation
Vermin infestation
- Date Closed: November 30, 2011
- Date Reopened: December 02, 2011
- Reason for Closure:
Vermin Harborage
Vermin infestation
Z GARDEN, 2350 PICO BLVD, SANTA MONICA, CA, 90405
- Date Closed: September 26, 2011
- Date Reopened: September 28, 2011
- Reason for Closure:
Vermin infestation
- Date Closed: September 29, 2011
- Date Reopened: October 12, 2011
- Reason for Closure:
Vermin Harborage
Vermin infestation
Behold the combined power of public records and the Internet.
Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.I've risen above the 90-day moving average. Time to buy the dip?
Trust me on this one. 212 pounds is not a good entry point for long-term buy and hold investors. There's no value here. The chart is luring you in. Don't fall for the technical analysis!In all seriousness, I climb 20 additional flights of stairs each and every day and will continue to do so well into the distant future. The holiday season is now in the rear view mirror. The days are starting to get longer again. I think the long-term weight trend can therefore still be safely assumed to be down. It is only a matter of time.
I've never tracked my weight like this before. The seasonal effects are more than I would have guessed. December wasn't as bad as November. I'm fascinated to see what January brings.
In any event, this plan is simply a lazy person's attempt to do the absolute least needed to attain and maintain a healthy weight. From where I sit, there's a fine line between the sin of laziness and the virtue of patience. As always, I intend to ride that line! ;)See Also:The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000
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