The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.022

I continue to climb at least 20 extra flights of stairs each and every day.


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It doesn't look that great but... I gained weight last March too. I guess that's just par for the [seasonally adjusted] course.


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I'm down 7 pounds since this time last year. The long-term trend works for me. I originally expected it to take "3-4 years to get down to my goal". Still seems plenty doable. No pain. No gain. (Not sure that's how they intended me to view it, lol.)

I mowed the yard yesterday (first time this season). I also did some weeding today. The seasonal effects should now start working in my favor. June is when the effects really kick in though (if the last two years are any indicator).

I'm also zipping through the 20 flights of stairs. Some days I use the physical stairs (2 sessions of 10 flights each) and some I just go 4 minutes continuously on the stair-stepper (50 feet per minute). It also keeps me in good enough shape so that I can climb [nearly] as many stairs as I like without giving it a second thought. :)

I'm very much looking forward to hiking season this year. It has nothing to do with weight loss. That will just be a bonus.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

ZIRP-A-Dee-Doo-Dah (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the average daily movement in the federal funds rate over the previous decade.


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It's not a bug, it's a feature.

This is when the programmers central bankers declare that they officially hate their end users savers and plan to never fix the problems in their code monetary system. Instead, users savers are forced to adapt to working around these "features."

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate

Nine

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I made it to number nine on Rocksmith's Scale Runner mini-game. It took me 5 1/2 hours of continuous play to get there (in addition to the massive number of hours played over the past 7 weeks). I hobbled my way off to a hot bathtub after making the attempt, lol.

9 (number)

The Japanese consider nine to be unlucky because in Japanese the word for nine sounds similar to the word for "pain" or "distress".

Anecdotal evidence sides with the Japanese on this one, not that I'm complaining! :)

In related news, the economy continues to hobble along as well. I suspect many investors may someday take a bath after their attempts to set new high scores in the S&P 500. Once again, this assumes that the Fed hasn't permanently put a stop to recessions even as our economy remains incredibly weak. Just a theory!

How Do I Safely Diversify Against Inflation?

I was asked by a reader to share my thoughts on the following article. Oh yeah, I'll share! ;)

Bankrate.com: How do I safely diversify against inflation?

Don't you just love the title? Really drew me in! The inside was not quite as juicy as the outside appeared though. Bad chef! So anyway, here are my thoughts.

1. If you made it nearly to the age of 80 and are just now thinking about getting a good deal on inflation protection, then you are probably too late. Sorry! There are too many people just like you.

2. If you made it nearly to the age of 80 and are convinced that inflation is going to be a problem, then why are you asking for "expert" mainstream financial advice? You seem to already know what's going to happen. (For the record, we've had a century of inflation. It's not exactly "on its way".)

3. If you made it nearly to the age of 80 and *always* knew what was going to happen next, then you should easily be a billionaire by now. Are you? If so, why are you asking financial advice from a non-billionaire? Feeling lucky?

4. If you are a Ph.D., CFA, and CFP who thinks that TIPS rates are too low to invest ("the music has to stop"), then you probably did not read thought #1 above nor did you read about other times throughout history when real yields were even lower than they are now (the 1970s, World War II).

5. If you are a Ph.D., CFA, and CFP who thinks 0.0% I-Bonds are still a worthy investment (as do I) and yet you do not think that 0.0% TIPS are a similarly worthy investment (if held within a tax-deferred IRA) then you must not have heard of the concept of buy and hold to maturity. Might want to brush up on that. (That said, I'm not suggesting that an 80-year-old should probably buy 30-year TIPS of course.)

6. If you are a Ph.D., CFA, and CFP who can mention "stocks, bonds or cash" in an inflation article without also at least mentioning "gold, silver or oil" (especially after their meteoric rise over the last decade) then you probably haven't studied what monetary policy, bubble blowing, and a lack of worthy alternative long-term mainstream investments can do (think stocks since 2000). Too bad! It was a good decade to think outside the box.

For what it is worth, I think hyperinflation theories are likely to be poned again soon. Oil's having a very difficult time pushing through $100. Should this be unexpected? I'll start to worry more about heavy inflation when non-Japanese 80-year-old investors ask the "experts" how to safely diversify against deflation. Let's just put it that way. (I'm always worried some about both inflation *and* deflation.)

And lastly, this is not an endorsement to buy gold and silver. I sold long ago (way too early in hindsight) and have no desire to buy back at these prices (relative to toilet paper). I might even suggest that both are looking a bit toppy lately (silver's taken a serious beating over the last 2 years), and I'm not speaking of world's first cloned working dog. What precious metals do next is anyone's guess, but I doubt they do it "safely" (in a non-volatile manner).

Just opinions!

Rocksmith Scale Runner (Blues)

That's me playing. My girlfriend shot the video. It was my third or fourth attempt at a reasonable score. 12.3 million is a keeper, much to the delight of my girlfriend. I warned her that it could take 20+ attempts, especially with the added pressure of someone watching me (and being videoed)!

At 136+ million as a total for all 11 scales, I currently hold the 34th best score on Rocksmith's Scale Runner mini-game. I expect to move into the top 10 in the not too distant future.

Is it a guitar addition? A video game addiction? Let's call it both.

Once again, sorry for not posting much lately. I doubt it is permanent. If/when the cracks begin to form in the dam again my posting activity will surely increase. That's assuming that the illusion of prosperity has not been replaced by actual prosperity of course. I don't really think it is much of an assumption!

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.021

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It has not been a good month, but you could have probably guessed that from my posting activity. That said, I continue to climb at least 20 flights of stairs each and every day. It is definitely a permanent habit now. Today I climbed 100. What motivated me? The incredibly uplifting Alice in Chains of course, lol.

Dirt (Alice in Chains album)

The songs on the album focused on depression, anger, anti-social behavior, drug use, war, death, and other emotionally charged topics.

Oops! ;)

In all seriousness, that's a great album. Pretty dark though!


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The death of our pet cat near the end of January marks the turning point. I think it was a trigger for allowing winter's doldrums to take center stage. Let's just say summer can't get here fast enough.

On a lighter note, I'm roughly 7 pounds lighter than I was on February 28, 2012. This is pretty much in line with what I would have predicted at this time last year. The path to get here was not nearly so predictable.

I'm also seeing a pretty substantial improvement in my ability to play scales on the guitar. I played pretty much every day in February. Seeing improvement is a great motivator. It doesn't burn many calories though. Go figure.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

Let's start with a chart of corporate dividends divided by corporate profits.


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We almost made it to 100% during the great recession. Hurray!

Contrary to the general opinion of the financial media and so-called financial experts, is it any wonder why some companies might hoard some extra corporate cash in case it happens again?

Now let's look at the 10-year moving average to eliminate much of the short-term cyclical noise.


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Companies are no longer willing to exponentially grow their dividends relative to their corporate profits? I know. It's all very shocking! Congress must make companies pay more! Pass a law or something!

Perhaps I should summarize without the sarcasm. Stick a fork in it. The unsustainable exponential growth party's over. We may still grow some but in my opinion we will never grow like we once did. Not even close. There are just too many headwinds and at least some of the ponzi-style tailwinds aren't holding up all that well either (as seen in the charts above).

And lastly, my posting frequency has been greatly diminished lately. Sorry about that! I do not believe it is permanent. My latest obsession is learning to play the guitar. I played from 5:30am to 8:00am last night. I was just running scales. I'm definitely not a morning person and man, oh man, are my left hand's fingers sore. :)

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Brent-Up Demand

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February 13, 2013
Econbrowser: Prices of gasoline and crude oil

But an increase in production in Canada and the central U.S. combined with a decrease in U.S. consumption has led to a surplus of oil in the central U.S.

$100 oil, less consumption, and a surplus? Bernanke's a miracle worker! That's why we pay him the big bucks!

I appear to have opened the sarcasm gates yet again. Why stop now? The Onion wrote the following 12 years ago.

January 17, 2001
Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'

WASHINGTON, DC–Mere days from assuming the presidency and closing the door on eight years of Bill Clinton, president-elect George W. Bush assured the nation in a televised address Tuesday that "our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is finally over."

Mission accomplished!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Brent / WTI