Saturday, December 1, 2012

The Sarcasm Report v.174

November 30, 2012
You're 55 and have $100K to invest. What to do?

Keep your costs down and don't settle for meager returns if playing catch-up

Emphasis added.

Hail Mary Pass

A Hail Mary pass or Hail Mary route in American football refers to any very long forward pass made in desperation with only a small chance of success, especially at or near the end of a half.

The expression goes back at least to the 1930s...

Ah, yes. The Great Desperation strikes again. Hail Mary time!



And if that doesn't work...



There's nothing quite like a well executed confidence game to even the odds.

Please Be Seated


Click to enlarge.

AIRodyssey: Inflight passenger announcements

“Ladies and gentlemen, as we start our descent, please make sure your seat backs and tray tables are in their full upright position. Make sure your seat belt is securely fastened and all carry-on luggage is stowed underneath the seat in front of you or in the overhead bins. Please turn off all electronic devices until we are safely parked at the gate. Thank you.”

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Saving Rate

Real Personal Current Taxes per Civilian Employed


Click to enlarge.

An optimist would exclaim, "Yay! The government's going to lower taxes and the number of civilian employed will increase dramatically! That's clearly how we'll make it back to the median trend line in red. No worries!"

Unfortunately, I'm not an optimist.

1. The largest peak was in the early 2000s. We returned to the median. It was painful.
2. The second largest peak was in the late 2007 to early 2008 period. We returned to the median. It was painful.
3. We seem to be peaking again.
4. What's up with that blue trend line?
5. Who's up for a game of fiscal cliff diving?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Friday, November 30, 2012

Real Disposable Personal Income per Civilian Employed


Click to enlarge.

It would seem that the low real interest rate environment is finally trickling in.


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income per Civilian Employed
St. Louis Fed: 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.018

I continue to climb a minimum of an extra 20 flights of stairs each day. This month it was pretty much the bare minimum every day.


Click to enlarge.

It was a good month, especially compared to last November.

Here's the long-term chart.


Click to enlarge.

Thanksgiving definitely worked against me. You can see the blip in the first chart quite clearly (23rd and 24th). My girlfriend and I have eaten two pumpkin pies since then and are half way through an apple pie. That doesn't even count all the ham I ate. Serious seasonal effect!

So what worked? Well, I had some pent-up walking demand from catching a cold in October. I also had a new pair of waterproof hiking shoes thanks to the recommendation of Mr Slippery (a hiker and blogger). As seen in the following chart, what started off as baby steps just kept growing.


Click to enlarge.

That's 164.5 miles of outdoor walking. No blisters. Hurray!

That said, hello exponential trend failure. Livin' the dream! Let's call the 29th the point of failure since it is raining hard today and the wind is a bit gusty. I was curious how many miles I could comfortably walk in a month. I might try it again at some point. Our dog certainly loved it.

And lastly, let's assume I could double the distance I walk each month and keep doing it every month. That's pretty much the trend in the chart. How far would I need to walk 32 months from now?

164.5*2^32 = 706,522,120,192 miles

Let's assume I walked 24 hours per day. How fast would I need to be moving?

706,522,120,192 miles per 30-day month = 272,578 miles per second

Let's just say that seems more than a bit unlikely. No, sir. Let's just call it an exponential trend failure today and get it over with.



See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Long-Term Cherry Picked Employment Trend


Click to enlarge.

I started with nonfarm payrolls which already exclude the long-term decline in farm labor. I then subtracted the declining long-term trend in manufacturing employees. I then subtracted the awful construction employment numbers of late. And lastly, retail trade employment hasn't been performing well at all since the success of Amazon.com.

What's left? All that cherry picked employment trend goodness! That's what!

Oh, crap. It's still a massive exponential trend failure? 29.6 million jobs below trend? Seriously? Can't say I didn't try. Hey, at least there has been some growth since 2000. That's something I guess. Sigh.

And people wonder why I'm a permabear?

This post inspired by Rob Dawg's comments found here.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart