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St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts
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Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Preliminary 2025
Housing Forecasts
Excerpt:
Towards the end of each year, I collect some housing for...
3 hours ago
4 comments:
Not so fast. As the ratio of farm workers to total population approaches infinity we can continue exponentially for quite some time.
Rob Dawg,
This data is from nonfarm payrolls.
Do you have any idea how much work it would take to take the names of every farm worker?
No, sir. Thanks to the miracles of modern farm machinery, farm employment has been dropping over the long-term. Best to exclude it entirely I say. It just confuses the long-term picture of job growth.
I would even go so far as to say that nonfarm payrolls don't go far enough.
The outlook would look so much better if we did the following instead!
Nonfarm Nonmanufacturing Nonconstruction Nonretail Payrolls
On the one hand, there's still an exponential trend failure. On the other hand, it isn't nearly as bad!
Woohoo! ;)
Much like Barry Ritholtz's "Inflation Ex-Inflation" sarcasm. See, I can match you despite your expertise.
Rob Dawg,
LOL! In any event, you've helped inspire a new post.
Nonfarm Nonmanufacturing Nonconstruction Nonretail payrolls here we come! ;)
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