Sunday, April 5, 2015

Uh, oh.

March 31, 2015
NACM: CMI Report for March 2015

The real damage is showing up in the unfavorable categories. By far the most disturbing is the rejection of credit applications as this has fallen from an already weak 48.1 to 42.9. This is credit crunch territory—unseen since the very start of the recession. Suddenly companies are having a very hard time getting credit.

Have no fear!

1. I have been repeatedly assured by financial experts on CNBC that (some) American companies are flush with cash!

2. Consumer confidence is pretty good right now! And surely the highly educated American consumer is fully aware what dangerous levels of debt can do. So if the consumer is optimistic, then I am too!

3. With the stock market at near record levels again, what's the worst that could happen again?

4. Yellen would really like to raise interest rates and get us the f%^* out of ZIRP! Would she really want to do it if the economy wasn't strong and resilient? I think not. I'm sure she would have done it sooner but rumor has it that she really needed to wash her hair first. But once she does, we are definitely next in line for a good time.

Dancing, romancing, and getting lucky, baby. That's what I'm talking about. Well, once she's finished washing her hair, of course. Six years might seem like a long time, but she did say that patience is no longer needed. I am therefore filled with enthusiastic optimism about the future! Well, mostly anyway. Technically speaking, there could be six more years of hair drying. She can be such a tease!

8 comments:

Michael said...

The FED has no credibility. That is already apparent to many. Even if they were to raise rates, this will not change.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Michael,

Ben "There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust" Bernanke had plenty of credibility with me back in 2005. Yes, sir. Believed everything he said like it was an ultimate trutth, lol. Sigh.

Anonymous said...

Hey, don't be so bitter. Janet used that excuse on me when I asked her out too. (That Bitch!)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

Me? Bitter? Where are you on her speed dial?

I'm apparently #8 but she assures me that I'm moving to #7 once the economy is truly as strong and resilient as it was in 1999!

It's only a matter of time! Woohoo! ;)

Troy said...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g= 16In

real (2014 dollars) per-capita (age 16+) housing and health expenditures (gov't + private)

To just take up space at the table costs a $26,000/yr ante now, up almost 7X in real terms since1960.

These are the high-rent sectors of the economy of course.

Health care gets you coming and going, and housing in between. Theoretically the kids can inherit the house & land at least . . .

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

Health care gets me coming and going.

1. Went to the doctor last week. Had minor double vision in one eye. Walked out with my first blood pressure prescription and a referral to an opthamologist.

2. Went to the opthamologist today. All good news. Walked out with a new eyeglasses prescription. Doctor thinks that may solve it.

3. Go to the dentist tomorrow. I'll be getting another crown to the tune of $1,100 or so.

At age 50+, I may be officially in fix and repair mode from here on out.

Don't have kids so I'm kind of counting on the kids of others (and their unborn grandchildren) to help me pay for it all.

Thanks unsustainable long-term government deficit spending! Livin' better so the next generation won't need to, lol. Sigh.

In all seriousness, seems a bit shameful. Although I am retired and reasonably well off, my health insurance premiums are subsidized because:

1. Interest rates are low so my income is low.

2. I don't work so I look poor.

3. Free time seems like one of the most valuable perks of all, yet the government feels the need to help me.

I wonder how many others are out there like me? Could explain the labor force participation charts.

That said, the system sort if shafts my girlfriend every which way. Without my help, she would be worse off than just poor. She really needs expensive health care treatments and her insurance company has mastered the art of payment avoidance.

mab said...

"Everybody" knows rates are set to rise. They've "known" this for years!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/182156/majority-investors-anticipate-interest-rate-hike.aspx?utm_source=Economy&utm_medium=newsfeed&utm_campaign=tiles

Majority "rules"!


Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

From your link:

The Federal Reserve has reportedly wanted to raise interest rates for some time...

Don't you just love the word reportedly? Some time? Yeah, try about 6 years.

Of course the Fed would not like to be stuck at zero! Zero is just a horrible score in almost any game. It's for losers!

C'mon Fed! Let's see you put some points on the board in the 2nd half! You are getting your monetary @$$ kicked! 110%! That's what I want to see out there!

Oh, crap. I think the other team just deflated the ball.