Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Continued Port Traffic Stagnation

Inbound traffic does not imply that there will be a strong Christmas season. Adjusted for seasonality, August was an absolutely awful month (down a whopping 33,000 containers from July).

Outbound traffic is attempting to move higher. Just like it did in 2007?

Total port traffic is really struggling. I see no hope of ever returning to the red trend line. Much like the other exponential trend failures I've posted on this blog, we continue to drift further and further away.

35% better not be yet another rubicon level, because this is not the first time we've crossed it.

See Also:
Port Traffic Stagnation

Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program


Stagflationary Mark said...

Mortgage default warnings surged in August

"This is really the first time we've seen a significant increase in the number of new foreclosure actions," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac. "It's still possible this is a blip, but I think it's much more likely we're seeing the beginning of a trend here."


Mr Slippery said...

Broken trends everywhere. On the foreclosure front, a friend of mine was bragging that a friend of his had lived in his house for 2 years without making a payment, then did a short sale to get out of it. I guess that worked out. Maybe it worked out for Boss Hogg!

I feel like the whole financial system is broken.

Who Struck John said...

The financial system is broken not. After defaults happen in Europe and China, then broken will it be.

WV = inking. Not sure if that is referring to the red ink in the budgets and the bank assets or the printing of money to cover the debts.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery & Who Struck John,

It is the [black] hole financial system that has me most concerned!

Sucks, it does. Yes, hmmm.

Audrey said...


Charles Kiting said...

I heard we were exporting inflation. Can that explain the outbound traffic trend line?

Troy said...

For every $4 of trade from China we send $1 to them, so it would not be surprising to see this imbalance.

Growth trends flattening do not bother me.

A flat economy is also a sustainable economy.

Of course, without growth debt cannot be repaid with interest, that's a problem.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Mark I left a link to the restaurant post a few ago with Jake at EconomPic and he worked up some data as well, check it out:

Stagflationary Mark said...

Charles Kiting,

July 31, 2008
U.S. Container Exports Still Dominated By Junk -- Scrap Paper, Scrap Metal And Bulk Commodities

Stagflationary Mark said...


Can't argue with what you've said.

I would love to see balanced trade. It will eventually get there one way or another. (The "another" way really concerns me.)

Stagflationary Mark said...


I read the link. Thanks for sharing that.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Thanks for writing it.