Friday, February 10, 2012

Is the Stock Market Safe Long-Term?


Click to enlarge.

Let's just say that I have a vivid imagination.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
St. Louis Fed: S&P 500

8 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

This is not an endorsement to bet the farm on oil at these prices by the way. There is another way that the red trend line in the chart can continue long-term.

February 10, 2012
U.S. oil demand to be sluggish for years: Lee Raymond

(Reuters) - The United States may be living through 10 years of sluggish growth that does little to boost domestic oil demand in the short term, the former head of oil supermajor ExxonMobil (XOM.N) told Reuters.

Stagflationary Mark said...

That said, it is also not an endorsement to short oil either. I always try to keep the gas tank of my car full. Better safe than sorry.

Fritz_O said...

If 1999 were a mirror in that chart...

Oil to $250/bbl. and SP to 750.

My answer to that problem would be to give large banks no-interest loans and then let them use the money to buy treasuries and earn back 3%. Then they would lend money to people with decimated 401k's so they could buy gas.

Not very imaginative, but it does seem to be a popular idea. HAHAHA

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

I *love* your idea!

Many ideas are radical and scare me. Yours makes me extremely comfortable though. It is 100% inside the box! Yes!

Speaking of containers, maybe banks could use also lend us money to buy Chinese goods now that we don't have jobs? Something must be done about all that port stagnation. I say forget the disease, treat the symptoms! ;)

Fritz_O said...

"...maybe banks could use also lend us money to buy Chinese goods now that we don't have jobs?"

Another popular idea...and one that wore out its welcome in the 2000's.

Nah, we're going to have to come up with something new.

How about...an experiment. I don't want to scare you but...I'm thinking that we all enter into a pact with each other and agree that each and every one of us has everything we really ever needed. Water, production and distribution of foods, closets and attics full of clothing (although perhaps not fully up with current trends), electricity, and, each other.

Radical.

I've not yet figured out where ocean-going yachts fit into this picture though.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

Radical!

I've not yet figured out where ocean-going yachts fit into this picture though.

Two-Person Inflatable Float

From the reviews...

Product didn't even make it to the swimming pool before developing leaks. Very hard to inflate

Fritz_O said...

Very hard to inflate

Wal*Mart should condider offering the "FOMC" version of the inflatable float.

It inflates with ease!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fritz_O,

On the other hand, an "FMJ" version of the boat would create even more deflation. Go figure.