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The red target is the 1.67% 30-year Treasury Bond yield at date of purchase. The yellow target is the 3.53% EE Savings Bond yield (if and only if held a full 20 years). The green target is a 6.0% growth rate that combines a 3.1% dividend, 2% inflation, 1% real yield growth, and 0.1% fund expenses.
Since I am using this fund as a bond replacement in a ZIRP world, my expectations are very low. Riding the yellow target would be satisfactory. Anything more is just a bonus. Anything below the red target would be unsatisfactory. Falling off the chart to the downside would clearly be an epic failure.
Months Elapsed: 1
Total Growth: 1.00%
Annualized Growth Rate: 12.67%
So far, so good. One month down, 199 to go. Apologies if this feels like watching paint dry. It is my hope that it will be similarly uneventful for the next 16+ years. One can always hope.
8 comments:
Good luck! I am all for a portfolio of watching paint dry.
I also bought utilities as bond substitutes. I have riskier phone utilities, riskier because I own the stocks and not an ETF or mutual fund. I haven't been charting my return, but it seems mostly flat so far. Will collect first divvies early Feb. I don't care much about short term price moves as long as the divvies are not as risk. Of course, a huge loss would be hard to overcome with divvies.
I am all for a portfolio of watching paint dry.
1% in 1 month should have felt like paint drying, but on a daily basis it seemed more like a paint can being delivered in an oversized cardboard box with no packing material during a pandemic. It was a rough ride. Can came out a bit dented.
I’m emotionally prepared for a 25%+ crash at some point, assuming that it isn’t due to utility sector dividends being drastically cut.
Don’t want to take the risk, but the markets and Fed don’t really care what I want. That said, it’s quite possible that the markets and Fed are forcing me to make more money than I otherwise would have. I’ll be sure to thank them in 199 more months if this all works out. *cringe*
Yeah, I am definitely taking more risk than I want. I was very happy with my roughly 4% yield to worst bond ladder, but I can't pull that off now without dipping into junk bonds.
Billy Idol nailed it in white wedding:
There is nothin' fair in this world
There is nothin' safe in this world
And there's nothin' sure in this world
And there's nothin' pure in this world
GameStop speculators:
In the midnight hour, she cried more, more, more
With a rebel yell she cried more, more, more
In the midnight hour babe more, more, more
With a rebel yell more, more, more
Patiently waiting for some hedge fund manager to explain how this high sigma “more, more, more” event should only happen once every billion years or so. Nothing like broken “sure thing” financial models to shake things up a bit!
Could very well be a 2 bagger in 15 years and thus even more lucrative than the series EE savings bonds. To the moon!
Could end up being a ½ bagger, which would make me the bag holder. *cringe* ;)
Could be in real terms. But at least the FED forced us all sit together in the boat of risk rocking through the Casino Ocean. It's a bonding experience with the FED as the great unifier. Shared are our dreams (and nightmares).
Yes!
United we sit, divided we fall... overboard, and capsize, and sink. Again.
Not just useful propaganda for choppy seas, but words of wisdom when there are way too many people in a tiny lifeboat, lol. Sigh.
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