Thursday, September 30, 2021

Apocalypse Fatigue

It's been a rough month.

Our 25-year-old bird is sick. We took her to the emergency vet. She stayed overnight. We think she ate part of her cage. Ingested some metals. She's prone to seizures and these were the most violent we'd ever seen. Feathers and blood everywhere. Not good.

Took her to her regular vet for a followup. She was terrified and escaped their control long enough for even more feathers and blood. Ouch.

We've set up a hospital cage for her made out of a large plastic storage container drilled with holes and filled with towels. It's treating her well so far.

Meanwhile, we ordered a new large steel cage for her. We were fortunate to find one on sale, because they are not cheap. There are SO many out of stock right now. It was originally supposed to be delivered two days ago but there was a delay due to a train derailment. I kid you not. It arrived today and we put it together. Fortunately, that went well. She's not ready for her new and improved home, but it will be ready when she is.

In other news, it's not been a great month for the stock market. I'm still up 10% since I bought back in December, even with today's tobacco stock selloff. The decision to diversify out of utilities is still holding up well. Utilities are not reacting well at all to the rise in the 10-year yield. Had I stayed entirely in utilities, the gains would be cut in half. On a brighter note, still doing better than the 30-year Treasury bond. By. A. Wide. Margin. A 0.37% increase in yield x 30 years is roughly an 11% loss.

No more VPU specific reports. It's only 20% of my IRA now (and my IRA is a relatively small part of my net worth), so my motivation to track it closely just isn't there any longer.

Cabin fever is becoming apocalypse fatigue. Since 2020, it’s starting to feel like we're in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong" era. My hoarding tendencies are on high alert, with each new "out of stock", "shortage", "supply chain disruption", and "Covid" story adding to the personal drama. The drama is real. Any resemblances to the many fine disaster movies I often enjoy are hopefully entirely coincidental, military soldiers driving gasoline tanker trucks in Great Britain notwithstanding. *cringe*

And lastly, my posting frequency will most likely be somewhat reduced in the coming weeks. Looking to take a break. I will definitely continue to post trading updates, not that I have many trading plans. I’m comfortable with what I own. The next purchase will probably be more savings bonds at the start of the new year.

9 comments:

Mr Slippery said...

Sorry to hear about the bird, that's sounds rough.

The whole year has not been as bright as I imagined. Delta wave, fires, restrictions, shortages. And now I am down on 5 out of 8 stocks. However, I am quite comfortable with prices as long as the dividends keep rolling in.

Let's hope 2022 turns out like we wanted 2021 to be.

Stagflationary Mark said...

2021:

https://twitter.com/HumansNoContext/status/1443577753320648714?s=20

Who Struck John said...

Last year was Twenty Twenty, this year is Twenty Twenty Won, next year is Twenty Twenty Too ... don't blame you for taking a break.

Senior pet issues are hard. The only things worse are parents and kids.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Triaphilia suggests bad things happen in Twenty Twenty Threes.

Twenty Twenty Four even has its own movie.

https://g.co/kgs/dyALza

A lone scientist maintains a bunker in case of a disaster; when he becomes trapped inside the facility, the walls begin to close in on him as he slowly loses control.

The American Foundation for Suicide Prevention Launched Project Twenty Twenty Five in Twenty Fifteen.

Twenty Twenty Six is looking better than it did in 1960, so that’s something I guess.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.132.3436.1291

Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026: At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millenia.

Long-term growth is certainly slowing, in more ways than one. Woohoo.

Who Struck John said...

Just this year, the date of Chinese population collapsing by 50% moved from 2100 to 2070 to 2050. After 35 years of one-child policy, who knew they'd have a shortage of young families? Especially since women are, ahem, underrepresented in the cohorts born during the one child policy.

The UN thinks Africa's population will peak at 4 billion. None of those people ever looked at logistics. If you can't grow the food, can't move the food there, and can't afford the food even if you could get it there, no way you get anything except spectacular famine.

Stagflationary Mark said...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/The-new-population-bomb

TOKYO -- For the past 200 years, a rapidly rising population has consumed the earth's resources, ruined the environment, and started wars. But humanity is about to trade one population bomb for another, and now scientists and policymakers are waking up to a new reality: The world is on the precipice of decline, and possible extinction.

It’s potentially the mother of all human trend failures. Definitely a huge risk for our species.

Don’t count on us to stop it. The only kids we have are fur babies and feather babies. *cringe*

Stagflationary Mark said...

And speaking of feather babies, check this out!

https://m.facebook.com/100003937925120/posts/3659218230886072/?fs=e&s=cl

Wait for it, lol.

Mr Slippery said...

I've always been fascinated with the chart of world population vs oil production. Humans went exponential after discovering cheap energy. Now that cheap energy is dwindling, the population curve should eventually turn down -- unless we discover a new source of cheap energy to replace oil.

https://energyskeptic.com/2013/oil-production-fueled-population-growth-and-food-production/

Stagflationary Mark said...

I clicked on the exponential growth link in your link. How could I not? This article then caught my eye.

https://energyskeptic.com/2017/limits-to-growth-2016-united-nations-report-provides-best-evidence-yet/

I’m a believer in the limits to growth theory in more ways than one. We’re like swarming locusts and it can’t ultimately end any better for us than it ever does for them. It’s the timing that is tricky. The economy has been booming for a decade, but when I say booming I really mean subpar historical real GDP growth. Once the virus is fully in the rear view mirror, I expect more subpar real growth, even when comparing to the last decade. Or put another way, I don’t expect to see a 2% real yield on long-term TIPS again in my lifetime, and even 1% seems unlikely.