Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Three Gorges Dam vs. Lawrence Yun

As China's mega dam rises, so do strains and fear
These days, China stands almost alone among nations in wielding the wealth and will to conjure up vast engineering efforts to alter the flow of rivers and lives of millions.

The housing market just refuses to stop. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

The dam region is granite-solid in parts but also spans brittle terrain. Scientists have long forecast greater instability as rising and falling dam waters punch at shorelines, block seepage, and squeeze weak spots.

We have been monitoring several markets where there could be significant stress due to the market correction. Chicago is not on that list. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

"The first sign will be cracks in the older homes, like ours," said a former resident of Qianjiangping, Wang Aihua, visiting his parents there. "Keep your eyes open for anything like that," he sternly told them.

The supply of homes is very tight for new and existing homes. We will continue to see healthy home-price appreciation. For non-home owners, that's bad news. But for home owners, that's building wealth. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

"Sometimes the ground rumbles and shakes, dogs bark, babies cry. It frightens us too," said Xiang's neighbor, Su Gongxiang, showing his front door that will no longer shut.

What we had in the past couple of years was an unprecedented frenzy of activity. That's what we're seeing: A decline from a frenzied, unsustainable rate. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

"We worry about staying but can't move," said Su Zhonghen, washing clothes in an outdoor stone sink that now skews to one side. "Only families with flooded homes get compensation."

Obviously, many renters have become homeowners as rates have fallen. - Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

NAR: Modest Recovery For Existing-Home Sales in 2008 as Credit Crunch Subsides
“Home buyers in it for the long haul nearly always come out ahead in building wealth. Given the leverage in purchasing a home, the average return on a 5 percent downpayment over 10 years is usually three to five times greater than stock market returns,” he said. “When people compare investment returns, they often overlook the power of leverage in the housing market.”

Mr. Yun, I think you might be forgetting the $400 trillion in derivatives and the 9,000+ hedge funds squeezing massive profits out of pennies. But hey, that's probably a bad comparison anyway. That would imply leverage is risky, but as we all know, home prices only go up! Woohoo!

Source Data:
Think Exist: Lawrence Yun quotes

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/army-warns-of-iraq-dam-catastrophe/2007/10/30/1193618880877.html

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

Sitting in a picturesque valley 70 kilometres along the Tigris River north of Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem - it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.

Good grief. It sounds a lot like our economy to me.

Anonymous said...

Yup