Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Capitulation Stages of an Optimist

Stage 1: Lean Towards Safety

September 4, 2007
"Safe" is a happy word

"Safe" is a happy word.

Stage 2: Consider Panicking

August 19, 2008

Don't Panic

First, panic! No, just kidding. First, don't panic.

So, again, don't panic.

Do not panic if your overseas investments tank for a time.

Eighth. Panic. Oops. I did it again. Nope, don't panic.

Then, panic! Ooops. I did it again.

Stage 3: Admit Defeat

October 6, 2008

How to Ruin the U.S. Economy

There, that should do it.

Sorry Ben, but deep down you probably knew it was coming. As seen in that first stage...

I love following the stock market. In the very long run it's a beautiful thing, at least in the postwar world, and I hope it doesn't turn around and bite my head off the way it did in the tech crash. - Ben Stein, September 4, 2007


Anonymous said...



Poned! Looks like 75 is the new 65.

It's okay though. The boomers can retire on the house, err..

Stagflationary Mark said...


Want scary?

From your link...

Retirement accounts have lost $2 trillion, leading Americans to keep working, stop saving

Keep working? Good luck on that one, the employment reports haven't exactly been offering a lot of hope there.

Stop saving? This country has a negative savings rate. It has a relatively high speculation rate though (but only on "sure things" that only go up). Maybe that's what we'll cut back on.

Anonymous said...


I don't trade, but I'm curious as to how this latest slide pans out for the in and out crowd.

The past 25 years have conditioned traders to expect rebounds after big drops. These rebounds have often been large due to short covering. However, the recent short ban may throw a monkey wrench into the commmon wisdom. The anticipated short squeeze is likely to be short on short sellers - an unintended consequence.

We truly have a casino eCONomy. Tragic, but good theatre non the less.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I don't trade, but I'm curious as to how this latest slide pans out for the in and out crowd.

On CNBC today, there was a headline at one point asking if this was the bottom. The Dow was down about 60 points. Using the power of hindsight and seeing an additional 450 point drop, I guess it wasn't.

Wall Street Crash of 1929

In the days leading up to Black Tuesday, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery.

It was an Age of Turbulence.