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I watched Art Cashin offer three scenarios for the markets earlier today. It was pointed out that all three of them were bad.
Needless to say, one of his scenarios played out.
Cashin's Comments On Bailout Bill
Would the negative vote and following vicious selloff be the worst scenario? Traders have another thought. Suppose the bill passes easily and a rally quickly erupts in the stock market. What if that rally were to roll over and then turn negative? That, traders fear, would be the worst scenario. Will it happen? Who knows. But as Pasteur said – "Chance favors the prepared mind."
Hello worst scenario.
There are a few people on CNBC that always get my attention. One is Art Cashin. The other is Rick Santelli. In my opinion, they are both quick to call a spade a spade.
Here's Rick Santelli in action a month ago. I'd say hindsight is being extremely kind to him especially as it regards commodities, the near-term future of interest rates, and the dollar.
Here's another video from January.
AIA: "Architecture firm billings retreat further in March"; Multi-family
Billings Decline for 20th Consecutive Month
-
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real
Estate (CRE) investment.
From the AIA: ABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings...
1 hour ago
6 comments:
Stag,
I think a lot Cramericans are Cashin out. Some by choice, some by force.
In spite of the $700 billion bailout I (still) think de-leveraging drives asset prices lower. Unlike Japan, I think we see higher rates too - corporate bond yields are up 10 to 20 % yoy.
Hey StagMark,
Santelli just rocks. Thanks for posting that clip, haven't been by in awhile and I see I should drop in more often!
Your port graphs would be a sight to behold right about now I am guessing by the way the Baltic index is behaving...
How and why do people listen to that lying blowhart.
MAB,
Unlike Japan, I think we see higher rates too - corporate bond yields are up 10 to 20 % yoy.
I have no opinion on future interest rates. Japan's economy and monsterous debt somehow keeps their interest rates low. I "still" like betting on stagnant growth AND higher inflation though. I figure hindsight will say that I was at least half right, which is good enough for me in a casino environment.
Energyecon,
Your port graphs would be a sight to behold right about now I am guessing by the way the Baltic index is behaving...
http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
August inbound traffic up.
http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
August inbound traffic down.
Los Angeles giveth and Long Beach taketh away. Stagnation for the win!
Growth in export traffic is looking good though. Perhaps we can export more of our real prosperity leaving us with just the illusionary goodness.
John,
How and why do people listen to that lying blowhart.
Same reason they listen to Suze Orman? Tell me and we'll both know.
Suze Orman Offers Straight Talk on the Stock Market
Aired April 17, 2000 - 9:00 p.m. ET
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0004/17/lkl.00.html
Here's the game. First note the date it was aired. Then eat a big lunch and try to keep it down as you read the entire transcript. Easier said than done!
Stag,
Last Monday, the Dow Industrials closed down 777 points - a casino number to be sure.
Last Friday, Cramericans got their 1099 (tax forms) earlier than usual.
Perhaps we'll see that 1099 become a 1031 (real estate tax exchange).
In any event, we're seeing a lot of superstitious numbers in the markets. There goes the Asian money!
MAB,
In any event, we're seeing a lot of superstitious numbers in the markets.
Didn't I just do a Panic Monday musical tribute last week? It's starting to feel like...
There is no way this winter is *ever* going to end as long as that groundhog keeps seeing his shadow. I don't see any way out of it. He's got to be stopped. And I have to stop him. - Phil, Groundhog Day, 1993
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