Sunday, June 6, 2010

Competing Directly With China

Gingrich pitches no-tax zone to revive Detroit

"If you're not going to compete with China, you're not going to be successful."

This post inspired by G.H., who offered the Detroit link in the comments.


EconomicDisconnect said...

From last thread, but very funny video!

Gawains is right, if you HAVE to sell anything you will be at the mercy of the market at that time. Denninger and about 90% of the world think gold is about to collapse, not very contrarian to me.

Its a real shame about the birds and the other animals at shelters. Do what you can and donate if you can to your local providers. I wish I could get another cat and we really tried to a while back but I think my best friend Sybil the cat dying a few years back may make getting another kitty too hard. Man, I know that sounds really pansy ass but I am still sad about my friend dying.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Anyone else see the film "The Road"? If you think leaving pets behind is a sad idea........

Stagflationary Mark said...


My Dog Skip

Hey, it makes me cry. Welcome to the pansy ass club, lol.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Denninger and about 90% of the world think gold is about to collapse, not very contrarian to me.

I will test your theory on the GLD message board under an assumed name.

Here's what I shall post.

"Gold's Price Will Collapse"

We'll see how well received it is.

EconomicDisconnect said...

My wife balled for hours after she read "Marly and Me". What can you do?

OK, my verification word is:
come on now, its Sunday night!

watchtower said...

'The Road' was brutal to watch, producing more than it's fair share of bad dreams for me.

Definitively not the feel good dvd rental of the year.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Just missed your other comment.

As a scientist one must ask about sample size and make up. A GLD board (or ZH comments, HA!) will lambast that comment. Ask the trader desks at firms and it may well be common thought and they are postioned for a huge move down in gold (I know one by personal aquaintence that has this trade on, they have been killed but are sticking with it).

Look I dont want to have another long thread, but are people lining up to wait 2 days to buy gold like condos in south florida? Are people selling jewelry to get cash to buy documented bullion? Has you company (if you are lucky enough to have a job) 401k firm opened up a metals fund (this happened Friday, our management firm changed their options and I asked about a metals fund and the nice lady who was a VP for the firm said "You want to buy metals, thats not a good idea."

Bubbles all over, yup. Do not get "sample distorted". Plenty of nuts that are goldbugs take up much of the blogosphere, but its a really small number overall.

Im really done now. I am getting really tired of this debate. Time will tell.

EconomicDisconnect said...

yeah, it was a brutal, rough film. I would say to all the goldbugs how did metals work out in that one??

I am sorry to have spotlighted it but it is a good wake up.

you have not stopped by at my site in a

Stagflationary Mark said...


GLD is the most popular of all the gold bullion funds. I think it is a fairly decent test of what people think.

$2 BILLION is traded in it each and every trading day. That's a huge amount of money. This isn't just some fringe fund with few followers.

I was lambasted for posting similarly bearish thoughts on Capital One Financial's message board near the peak there too. That's because SO many investors were bullish. After it crashed, I would have been similarly lambasted for posting something bullish.

I think you might even be surprised by the results though. Not all are bullish there.

You claimed that 90% of the world thinks gold is about to crash in price though. That's an opinion I do not share.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Here's an appeasement bone to all the gold bugs.

They say that one should always have enough gold to pay the border guard. I think that's probably true for most of the world's population, those in China especially.

That said, I can't imagine living anywhere else but America. If it ever gets to the point that I feel the need to bribe a border guard to get out of this country, then heaven help us all.

EconomicDisconnect said...

I doubt the major holders of GLD shares frequent the GLD message boards. Come on.

If USA today or the NY times did a poll I am sure 99.9% of folks with investments have none in metals, except by chance. How many had Cisco shares? Redhat? How many have Apple (bigger than Exxon now???) or Baidu. I love ya but focus the energy where its needed.

EconomicDisconnect said...

I want gold to go to zero so I can buy it all!

In the novel "The Door into Summer" the fact that gold can be manufactured figures large in the plot, I do suggest it.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I doubt the major holders of COF shares frequented the COF message boards either. Didn't really matter one way or another though. The message boards indicated "popular" sentiment.

Anonymous said...

Awesome! You have a blog. I still go to the Yahoo TIP board even though I sold out of that fund just to read your stuff.

Maybe you remember me...cobacoba98

I am bookmarking now...LOL.

Even thinking about getting back into TIP as I sold off all stocks and am now sitting in cash.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Hey cobacoba98,

You are too kind! I had to go back to remember what you had to say. I found this.

"I think these price increases are not going to hold, that they are based on Chinese overbuilding and possible hoarding. Overbuilding leads to a bust when demand suddenly dries up. Hoarding,if it is occurring significantly, which I don't know, could be even worse, as artificial demand dries up, and then the speculators may sell off their stocks, causing even further price drops."

I hear that!

You might consider waiting a bit on TIP in my opinion. As much as I love TIPS (and you know I do), they are pricey right now, the CPI figures have been flat for three months straight, oil is now struggling at $70, 5-Year TIPS are priced for perfection at just 0.2%, and we could easily slide back into another deflationary mess. Cash might not be so bad.

Money has been piling into TIP due to fear, but as we saw in 2008 too much fear can definitely work against TIP.

It could get caught in the deflationary downdraft like it did in late 2008.

I don't think it will be as bad as last time even if it does happen, but who really knows?

Just opinions of course.

Unknown said...

China's going wage is $200/mo.

Who do you want a factor floor staffed by? America's dregs that can't relocate out of that frozen hell-hole, or China's crack light industry manpower?

Our leaders are Out to Lunch.

Well, the conservative contingent at least. The moderates are just trying to keep their heads down and get reelected.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Heywood Mogroot,

Perhaps Detroit just needs more strikes? You know, in order to become more competitive with China?

DTE's largest union OKs strike call as talks go on

Anonymous said...

"China's crack light industry manpower."

Ha! Ha! Ha! How many factories have you been to in China?

Putting a peasant into an unkempt uniform does not make them a "crack worker."

No, it might be the managerial experience at running light industry - like how to keep the workers from brawling, drinking on the job, or from stealing - that makes Chinese companies strong, though.

America's unions (and our dregs you rightly highlight) make us have problems, but China also is getting that union bug - Honda just had a two week strike at a plant and they caved and raised salary by 24%. I would predict that at the slightest reason, they will do that again, too.


Stagflationary Mark said...

I saw this a few years ago. Enjoy.

China "automated" stamping plant chinese factory