I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
November Employment Preview
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On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for
November. The consensus is for 183,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment
rate to...
Dr. Strange Move or How I Learned to Love the Bill
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After a couple of years of disinflation, the Fed changed directions and
started lowering rates. By most measures, the economy had been humming
along near a...
NVIDIA Revisited
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On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a
critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the
stoc...
Stay away from popular tech stocks, part II
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Last August, I wrote a blog post arguing that largest technology and
internet companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft -- would
never grow i...
Updating the HF Indicators
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I posted this over on Seeking Alpha.
Not much good seems to be happening, and I am concerned about the low pace
of construction and a likely end to the sho...
Yes, Well, It's Still a Friday Night
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I doubt anyone is still reading the old stuff, but I have a quiet Friday
night and figured, why not a Friday Night Rock Blog?
I found this one recently (...
I don't know why I didn't think of it sooner. It's so simple really. If we all simply consumed everything right now and stopped worrying about the future then the global economy could bounce back instantly.
What would we do with our old stuff though? Here's a thought. It's a bit crazy so bear with me. We could send it off to special areas of the planet dedicated just to it? Has anyone else thought of this? Genius!
We'll need a way to encourage people to adopt my new plan of course. I know it can sometimes be difficult to get American consumers to spend money, especially if we don't have jobs. Perhaps the government could create some sort of "Cash for Old Stuff" program? Better still, perhaps the financial services industry could offer small plastic cards that would allow consumers to buy stuff without actually having to pay for it all at once? Why hasn't anyone thought this up yet? It would solve all our problems! Genius!
As a side note, I ate at Dick's Drive Intoday and witnessed a crow make off with an entire leftover bag from a nearby garbage can. No joke. I'm guessing that over time the crows figured out that Americans don't eat every last bite. Why would we? We all know food has been so plentiful and will no doubt be just as plentiful well into the distant future. What could possibly ever go wrong?
I also visited Costco and Sam's Club. Like the crows, I don't exactly take food for granted. I tend to stockpile it. I figure what's the harm? Unlike many of the last decade's more successful hoarding ideas, it's not like investors have piled into canned goods expecting to get rich. The downside is therefore fairly limited.
Another TIPS fan: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-tips-vs-treasuries
Jeff Borack of Kerrisdale Capital says: "The combination of lower risk and higher return is a rare opportunity in finance. We’re at a loss to understand why investors (especially those with inflation fears) would hold treasuries, CDs, or excess cash when they could buy TIPS."
The ignorance in that post's comments are a wonder to behold though. Wow.
ever wondered WHY when then CPI's figures are released, they LEAVE out the cost for fuel, and FOOD?
No, I have not ever wondered about it. Not once.
He clearly has never read a CPI report, nor have MANY other posters on the Internet. This question just gets repeated over and over again until it becomes "common knowledge" fact.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
What part of "food", "food at home", "food away from home", "gasoline", "fuel oil", and "electricity" leads one to believe that the CPI-U does not include food and energy?
CPI only measures a bunch of crap that you don't need (while excluding "volatile" food and energy costs)...
Repeat false information enough times and everyone starts to believe it.
John Williams has the best inflation data out there ....
It just makes me want to vomit. Even if you thought the BLS was bogus, why would anyone trust shadowstats? At least we know how the CPI is calculated. They pretty much show us all the math. Shadowstats is FAR less transparent.
And lastly, even the posters who think that deflation will rule the day don't seem to realize that TIPS do offer deflation protection.
If you buy TIPS in an initial auction then you are guaranteed to get all of your original principal back at maturity. You will also be earning at least some interest in the meantime.
TIPS therefore will outperform cash over the long-term, no matter how deflationary things become.
Thanks for supplying the article! The comments alone have been a real eye opener.
"'...is there a legitimate consumer grocery index anywhere??'
Just go to the same store each week and note down the cost of a 24 can pack of Busch Beer. Grain, energy, aluminum, distribution. You will have it all in one simple index."
9 comments:
Stag,
Waste a lot, want not.
That's the current thinking anyway.
Can you believe we are trashing our earth to satisfy financial ledgers and yearly Wall St. bonus desires?
Fordism, eh.
This post of yours and MoM's post on regulating "journalism" reminds me of this: http://www.recombinantrecords.net/docs/2009-05-Amusing-Ourselves-to-Death.html
Of course I can't help but wonder at the author's obvious false dichotomy. Is he merely foolish or meant to fool? :-)
AllanF,
If we could really amuse ourselves to death, the authorities would need to arrest you for killing me, lol.
(I was extremely amused!)
Another TIPS fan:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-tips-vs-treasuries
Jeff Borack of Kerrisdale Capital says:
"The combination of lower risk and higher return is a rare opportunity in finance. We’re at a loss to understand why investors (especially those with inflation fears) would hold treasuries, CDs, or excess cash when they could buy TIPS."
Well, we knew that from Mark already!
GYSC,
The ignorance in that post's comments are a wonder to behold though. Wow.
ever wondered WHY when then CPI's figures are released, they LEAVE out the cost for fuel, and FOOD?
No, I have not ever wondered about it. Not once.
He clearly has never read a CPI report, nor have MANY other posters on the Internet. This question just gets repeated over and over again until it becomes "common knowledge" fact.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
What part of "food", "food at home", "food away from home", "gasoline", "fuel oil", and "electricity" leads one to believe that the CPI-U does not include food and energy?
Here's some more.
CPI only measures a bunch of crap that you don't need (while excluding "volatile" food and energy costs)...
Repeat false information enough times and everyone starts to believe it.
John Williams has the best inflation data out there ....
It just makes me want to vomit. Even if you thought the BLS was bogus, why would anyone trust shadowstats? At least we know how the CPI is calculated. They pretty much show us all the math. Shadowstats is FAR less transparent.
Shadowstats debunked
Why do people continue to give credibility to an operation like Shadowstats? Now that's something that I'd like to hear explained.
People desperately want to believe in conspiracies. That's what I believe.
GYSC,
And lastly, even the posters who think that deflation will rule the day don't seem to realize that TIPS do offer deflation protection.
If you buy TIPS in an initial auction then you are guaranteed to get all of your original principal back at maturity. You will also be earning at least some interest in the meantime.
TIPS therefore will outperform cash over the long-term, no matter how deflationary things become.
Thanks for supplying the article! The comments alone have been a real eye opener.
Forehead. Desk. Whack! Whack! Whack!
"'...is there a legitimate consumer grocery index anywhere??'
Just go to the same store each week and note down the cost of a 24 can pack of Busch Beer. Grain, energy, aluminum, distribution. You will have it all in one simple index."
ROFLMAO
G.H.,
I got a kick out of that too, lol.
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