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Behold the anti-mass exodus into nominal treasuries! (New 1.7% low hit yesterday.)
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Gaze in wonder at the panic into inflation protected treasuries! (New -0.39% low hit today.)
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Gasp in amazement at the violently unchanging inflation expectations! (Inflation expectations locked at Fed's new public target of 2%.)
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Tremble in fear at the lack of uncertainty! (The Fed has the yellow dot pretty much right where it wants it.)
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Stampede in confusion at the new normal's implications! (And/or quietly capitulate.)
See Also:
Bondmageddon Is Here!
2012's Bondmageddon
Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
U.S. Treasury: Daily Yield Curve
4 comments:
this newsletter was posted at hcn just now. . .
coulda written every word, except I'm not particularly bearish on China I guess.
Troy,
I think we're pretty much seeing the same thing.
There is one exception though. I am particularly bearish on China (and therefore agree with Jim Chanos).
That said, if we agreed on everything then one of us would be redundant. ;)
Being a good physiocrat, I just like countries that can feed themselves.
China was just such a tough place in living memory that I don't feel comfortable expounding on its prospects going forward.
These people went through hell 1900-1975.
A housing bubble fallout is peanuts compared to all that.
Demographically, their family planning policy is going to put them in a much better situation compared to India (google graph).
They're coming from such a low place that I don't really see any headwinds in their future.
But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.
Troy,
But the rise of a Russian-style oligarchy ripping off the masses is one threat to their general welfare I guess.
If not for their growing income inequality and ongoing corruption, I would not be as bearish.
Many Chinese people believe the allegations against Bo reflect widespread problems of officials and their families mixing power and profit - using political privilege to accumulate wealth far beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.
Those same things contribute to my bearishness here too of course.
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