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$1 here we come!
Guns N' Roses - Patience
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 3-Month CD Rates
St. Louis Fed: CPI
Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range
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Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024:
"It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. economy is performing. We're
performing better than all of our global peers. ...
2 hours ago
3 comments:
For what it is worth, I'm a believer in the red trend line long-term.
Are you calculating an inflation adjusted real return based on 3 month CD rates?
The FDIC has the current rate capped at 0.87%, but none of my banks or credit unions come close to that rate.
I am guessing the current loss in real value is greater than the average -0.46% from the trend line.
Mr Slippery,
Are you calculating an inflation adjusted real return based on 3 month CD rates?
Yes, and I'm also factoring in a 25% tax rate.
I am guessing the current loss in real value is greater than the average -0.46% from the trend line.
On the one hand, an exponential trend line from 2008:Q4 to 2012:Q1 shows a pitiful -2.13% average growth rate. For what it is worth, I planned for a -2% real loss long-term when I turned bearish in 2004. Some might argue that we're already there.
On the other hand, oil has been struggling to stay above $100, the employment reports appear to be deteriorating, and the stock market is looking a bit toppy. Cash has been performing fairly well lately.
I'm thinking both hands are very busy right now. It takes a lot of work to wave smoke and mirrors, lol. Sigh.
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