Statistics Challenge: How Many in 2015? (Updated)

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If it helps, here are some facts to get you started on your prediction(s) for the future.

1. There are seven data points at 1, four at 2, and two at 3.
2. The median is 1.
3. The average is 1.615.
4. The standard deviation is 0.768.

As a bonus challenge, if you can figure out exactly what this data represents by any means at your disposal, I will be seriously impressed.

Feel free to keep your guesses to yourself, but if you are curious about the answer, I will be updating this post in 24 hours or so to fill in the missing information.

Update:


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I bet if we would have asked each member of the Federal Open Market Committee how many doctoral degree workers would be paid at or below the federal minimum wage in 2015, they would have each said about 1,600. You know, because labor conditions are generally improving, blah, blah, blah. And since all may have agreed, one might even start to believe their predictions as a group would hold even more weight.

Nobody would have said 8,000. It is 8.3 standard deviations from the 2002 to 2014 average. It's an 8-sigma event! Virtually impossible!

And yet, it wasn't virtually impossible. It's just bad statistics. It's not a normal distribution. 12 years of data wasn't enough to accurately predict the future. No amount of data is. There are no black swans here. @#$% happens. That's especially true in this economy.

Moral of the Story

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns. It's an important concept. There are no sure things. I don't waste my time parsing every last word the Fed says looking for ultimate wisdom. Although some wisdom may be found in the rear view mirror, most of it is found looking out the front window.

When the Fed says labor markets are improving, what they really mean is that the past shows labor markets were improving. Of course, presenting the truth that way doesn't inspire nearly as much confidence.

The captain of an airplane never announces, "You may be relieved to know that this flight has gone as well as can reasonably be expected since taking off at the airport. It's a large plane and it therefore handles sluggishly. Our ability to evade incoming surface-to-air missiles was therefore poor, and continues to be. That said, although you may already be aware of this, I'm very pleased to announce that we haven't crashed. That's very good news for all of us. There is more good news though. Any number of serious things that could have gone wrong so far, haven't. The number of mid-air collisions has been within the acceptable range of zero to one, favoring the lower end. Although there is no telling what the future might bring, each passing minute incrementally improves our odds of actually making it to our destination in one piece. That brings us to the landing. Please buckle your seat belts. The landing is the most dangerous aspect of air travel, but I'm anticipating a good one, which many define to be any landing that we can all walk away from, not just those of us who were lucky enough to make it to the plane's exits in time. Thank you for flying Honest Airlines. We'll be coming into contact with the ground soon and many of you may meet up with your loved ones, be it on earth in the baggage claim area, or in heaven should the tarmac become our final resting place. Have a great day! Please enjoy the rest of your flight! Oh, great. A fog bank? Seriously? Reminds me of the time my house was in foreclosure and I lost my will to live. Seems like only yesterday, probably because it was. Oops. Is my microphone still on?"

Bad Mark. Very bad! Very bad! Hahaha! :)

Speaking of very bad, I just want to say one more thing about the chart. 2015 was clearly not a good year for everyone. WTF! :(

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Wage and Salary Workers Paid At or Below Prevailing Federal Minimum Wage: 16 Years and Over: Doctoral Degree