Almost Back to Abby Normal

The following chart shows personal consumption of goods over services.

I can't speak for others, but I started buying a lot more stuff when the pandemic hit. Stuck at home, not much else to do. Some of that is seen in the chart and was directly responsible for the higher inflation rate in goods. Currently trying to wean myself off of this new temporary behavior.

There's something else going on too though, as seen in the upward slope of the red trend line channel. Here's one theory.

January 22, 2024
Study shows how social media fuels unhappiness and materialism

Clothes, cars, travel, followers: People with a materialistic mindset always want more and, above all, more than others. Social media provides them with ideal opportunities to compare themselves with others, which makes them susceptible to passive and addictive user behavior. This stresses them out and, ultimately, leads to low life satisfaction. This downward spiral, which turns materialists into less happy people, was identified by researchers from Bochum in an online survey of over 1,200 participants. They published their findings in the journal Telematics and Informatics Reports from January, 8, 2024.

Unemployment Level

The following chart shows the natural log of the unemployment level. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two sets of trend lines to the chart. The lines in red represent the old trend. The lines in blue represent a possible new trend.

Will unemployment growth return to the more manageable red channel? Or will it continue within the much more concerning blue channel? Or neither?

Be careful out there. Might not be the safest time in all of recorded history to swing for the fences.

Not investment advice.

Elon Musk’s Idea of Work

Link

While working, surf the Internet and post your thoughts! Be the productivity change you want to see in the world!

100% Trust in Financial Institutions

These 5-star reviews for a major online mobile banking app can't be wrong!

I'd say which Apple app it is, but since all 3 of the mobile online banking apps I use have similarly stellar reviews, it seems fairly obvious that we can trust them all. Yes, sir. The days of unethical behavior, deceiving practices, and outright fraud are all clearly behind us!

The illusion of prosperity is dead! Long live the illusion of prosperity!!

Stay Hydrated

The choices are:

1. Drink plenty of water.
2. Take an ambulance to the emergency room and learn first hand how painful a kidney stone can be.

I chose poorly. May you learn from my mistake.

The good news is that the 4.5mm kidney stone that was causing me so much pain passed within 10 hours of the first symptoms, the pain medication given in the ER was quite effective, and the stone was smooth so once it exited my kidney, the pain was gone. No jagged spikes, thankfully. Not everyone is so fortunate.

The bad news is that the other kidney has 3 similar ticking time bombs and one of them is 6mm. Yikes!

Why an ambulance you might ask? Seemed warranted given the extreme pain and the fact that I was throwing up like a machine gun. 2 bursts of 4! And with such force that my ribs hurt when laughing or coughing for 4 full days thereafter.

Wage Inflation Pressure

The following chart shows the natural log of U.S. wage and salary disbursements. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

The Fed does not need to deflate wages back into the long-term channel in green, but rather to return to the slope of that channel. What's done is done. Deflation to undo the high inflation is definitely not the goal.

Some progress is being made. We've noved from the steep slope of the red line to the more moderate slope of the yellow line.

I'm convinced that they can achieve their goal, one way or another. But at what cost? I can be a bit cynical, but there's a high risk here that we're still in the early stages of a no-win situation.

How high will the unemployment rate need to rise to get us back to the healthier wage inflation trend? I have no idea, but I can say with 100% certainty that 100% unemployment would do it. Can't have any wage and salary disbursements if nobody is working.

The bulk of my net worth sits in inflation-protected I-Bonds and TIPS. As of about a year ago, my IRA sits entirely in bonds without inflation protection (TLT). And here's where I sit until I see a reason to take on more risk. Near record unemployment expected to rise, falling house prices, and high interest rates are not things that make me excited about taking on riskier investments.

Not investment advice.

The Sarcasm Report v.291

February 8, 2023
lifehacker: The Biggest Mistakes People Make When Trying to Eat Healthy

Eating enough to stay healthy is important, and eating enough protein is a big part of that.

And if you continue to scroll down after reading that article...

February 10, 2023
lifehacker: Get Free Wendy's Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers Until Sunday

You can only get one per visit, but you can visit as many times as your stomach desires.

Bacon, cheese, and beef sure are great protein sources! Visit as many times as your stomach desires! You know, for your health! Woohoo! ;)

Converting Paper Savings Bonds

Dear Customer,

This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.

Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.

Up to 13 weeks? Ouch. The wheels on the governmental bureaucratic bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.

Elondriel’s Next Motivational Speech

In place of Twitter you would have a King! Not dark but beautiful and terrible as the seven cent Doge! Treacherous as the SpaceX! Stronger than the foundations of Tesla! All shall love me and despair!

Cancel Cultured Redux

November 17, 2022
The Guardian: Twitter user gets account back after ban for ‘intimate’ image of meteor

“It was not offensive or pornographic at all,” said McIntyre. “It was just a meteor.”

Been there, done that. It was just a puppy! It was just a circle! Ignorance of the social media law is no defense.

The social media law could not be any more clear. Do not post content that could potentially offend any human, either real or imagined.

Here is a concrete example of what not to post:

Very offensive. Don't do that. ;)

Cancel Cultured

I bought a pretty fantastic magnetic tool on Amazon for drawing circles. Amazon pestered me to leave reviews, so I opted to comply. After submitting the following one sentence glowing review with this video demonstrating the product in all of its glory, Amazon deleted all of my reviews and has warned me to follow their guidelines. By the way, ignoring these guidelines can apparently lead to my account being suspended. Since I own Kindle books and am not much of a risk taker, no more Amazon reviews from me. Ever.

Welcome to social media dystopian crazy metropolis, which is a few steps up from crazy town. We've come a long way since the days I deleted my Twitter account for being shadow banned due to posting puppy pictures. A long, long way. You don't even need to incite an insurrection. Progress!

We are so headed down the doom scrolling dystopian path, and with it the illusion of prosperity will surely prosper. The illusion that is, not so much the prosperity. Sigh.

Gimme Shelter

The following chart shows the natural log of the CPI for shelter. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red.

With lofty housing prices and lofty mortgage rates, it seems very unlikely that we're going to make it back to the top of the trend channel anytime soon. Which, if you think about it, is kind of odd. I could swear that the Fed really wanted that. Just not all at once, apparently. Too bad.

If I were a gambling man, I would wager that there is more risk leaving the channel to the downside than to the upside. And maybe I am a gambling man, because I continue to hold TLT. Very encouraged by today's CPI report. One battle doesn't win the war though, of course.

Been There, Done That

The following chart shows the natural log of total business inventories. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.

Massive Economic Uncertainty Continues

So many consumer surveys, but none of them ask the key questions for the next year:
- How much did you accumulate in savings during the pandemic?
- How much do you have left?
- How much of that do you intend to spend?
Without the answers, forecast margins of error are *massive.*

Twitter: Ian Shepherdson

Great questions. Too bad the Fed Chairman can't see the answers.

Jerome “The Earl” Powell

The following chart shows the unemployment rate minus the 12-month percentage change in the median CPI. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term arrow in green.

I looked at Earl and his eyes was wide
His lip was curled, and his leg was fried
And his hand was froze to the wheel
Like a tongue to a sled in the middle of a blizzard

I says, Earl, "I'm not the type to complain
But the time has come for me to explain
That if you don't apply some brake real soon
They're gonna have to pick us up with a stick and a spoon"

Net Worth to Total Debt Ratio

The following chart shows household and nonprofit organization net worth divided by total debt in all sectors.

As seen using the red channel, this 60-year linear trend has failed by a large amount in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Epic failure, actually. Should have more of them. Never before has so much additional prosperity been generated by so little additional debt.

Of course, not everyone believes that fairy tales always have happy endings. Here's a scary fable involving bears that's just in time for Halloween.

Net worth has been falling rapidly lately, thanks to the stock and bond markets. We'd be back in the channel if it were to fall another 30% or so, assuming it were to continue to happen rather quickly. And what would be quicker than rapidly rising mortgage rates combined with million dollar homes?

Of course, there's another way to get back in the trend channel. Total credit market debt outstanding is only $91.2 trillion. Yes, only $91.2 trillion. A pittance, really. If we were to quickly increase it by 40% then back in the "safety" of the declining channel we would be. Think what we could do with all that free money! Here's an idea. A $36 trillion Halloween party in the name of world peace! Everyone on the planet could be invited. Nobody goes home empty handed. Woohoo!

Please don't confuse my love of gallows humor for sarcasm, nor my love of sarcasm for gallows humor. It's both. It's almost always both these days, lol. Sigh.

Whip Inflation Now!

The following chart shows the natural log of the 30-year Treasury yield. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth (or decay) is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term trend arrow in green.

Will the long-term trend ultimately prevail? Trapped in a world of nearly permanent ZIRP?

Will the short-term trend break everything? Housing! Stocks! Bonds! Employment!

Will it be a combination of both? Or neither?

Stay tuned for the next exciting and terrifying episode of...

Global Devolution!

Job Openings Per Capita

Pop goes the weasel.

This Is Why

Now you know.

But seriously, this song was just released and I love it! Thought I'd share. :)

Soft Landing?

The following is a chart of QQQ using a log scale. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

THIS IS YOUR CAPTAIN!!

BRACE FOR EMERGENCY SOFT LANDING!!!