Six months down, a lifetime to go.
Click to enlarge.It might just be me, but I think I might see some leftover Halloween candy, Thanksgiving dinner, and Thanksgiving leftovers in the chart.
Click to enlarge.I said from the beginning that I would not be consciously altering my eating habits. I will not deprive myself of pumpkin pie. Let's just put it that way. :)
The charts therefore are what they are. Winter is brutal (no yard work, fewer outdoor activities, and multiple food related holidays).Now for the good news.
1. November is probably my worst month for weight loss. It's officially over. Further, I strongly suspect that this year's November wasn't as bad as last year's November. It will be interesting to me to see the seasonal variations as more data is collected.
2. I continue to climb the extra 20 flights of stairs each day. It adds up. That's roughly 36,000 feet of additional climbing since the beginning of June. It is a firmly entrenched permanent habit. I will eventually make progress in the right direction again. It is simply a matter of patience. I originally thought it might take 3-4 years to get down to my goal. Perhaps that's still true.
3. The time needed to comfortably do the 20 flights of stairs continues to fall. I'm generally only taking 4-5 minutes per day now. I can always find time for that. It's no big deal at all (which is important since I am generally a lazy person looking to do the minimum necessary to meet my long-term goals).
4. I've also been doing some additional stair climbing on the side from time to time (although I never feel compelled to do so). On the 7th of November I climbed 200 flights of stairs all out (in addition to the 20 flights I always do). It took me 48 minutes and 47 seconds. That's actually fairly close to a personal best (done many years ago when I was younger and lighter).See Also:The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000
Here's a list of dates when the S&P 500 crossed above the 1200 level (at the close compared to the previous trading day's close).1. 12/21/19982. 4/18/20013. 7/12/20014. 7/26/20015. 12/14/20046. 12/21/20047. 2/4/20058. 2/11/20059. 2/24/200510. 6/1/200511. 6/9/200512. 6/13/200513. 6/28/200514. 7/5/200515. 7/8/200516. 10/31/200517. 9/16/200818. 9/18/200819. 9/25/200820. 4/14/201021. 4/20/201022. 4/29/201023. 5/3/201024. 11/4/201025. 12/1/201026. 8/15/201127. 8/29/201128. 9/15/201129. 10/12/201130. 11/30/2011Wake me up
(Wake me up inside)
I can't wake up
(Wake me up inside)
Save me
(Call my name and save me from the dark)
Wake me up
(Bid my blood to run)
I can't wake up
(Before I come undone)
Save me
(Save me from the nothing I've become)See Also:Crossing the S&P 500's RubiconCrossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.22Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.23Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.24 (Musical Tribute)Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.25Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.26Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.27Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.28 (Musical Tribute)Crossing the S&P 500's Rubicon v.29 (Musical Tribute)Sarcasm DisclaimerSource Data:Yahoo: S&P 500 Historical Prices
November 27, 2011Black Friday Sales Advance 6.6% to Record, ShopperTrak Says"This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak's National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006," ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in the statement."There was an 8.3% year-over-year increase on Black Friday in 2007.The WTI crude oil price was $98.24 o
n Black Friday in 2007.The Great Recession began in December 2007.There was a 6.6% year-over-year increase on Black Friday in 2011.The WTI crude oil futures price is currently $98.48.What could possibly go wrong?
November 15, 2011How Much Should Retirees Stake in TIPS?So assuming you've decided you'd like to include inflation-protected investments in your portfolio, what's the right amount? At first blush it might appear that you'd want all of your fixed-income portfolio in TIPS; that's the tack embraced by some academics and other investment theorists.At first blush I determined that I wanted my entire investment portfolio (not just the fixed-income part) in TIPS heading into the great recession (with some cash for liquidity on the side). I guess that puts me in the "other investment theorist" camp.After all, if there's a bond investment that helps offset the corrosive effects of inflation, why would you want to forgo it for one that doesn't offer that protection?In my opinion, the article should have ended right there (unless it was willing to explore the risks of owning bonds in general, which it was not).The key reason is diversification. While some corporate, foreign, and municipal bonds carry inflation protection, TIPS are the most widely available and liquid type of inflation-linked bonds, and most inflation-protected bond funds skew heavily or even entirely toward TIPS. That means an investor in search of an all-inflation-protected fixed-income portfolio would have to go out of his way to avoid a heavy emphasis on government bonds; at the same time, he'd hold relatively less in corporate, asset-backed, and other bond types, which will outperform Treasuries and other government-backed bonds at various points in time.It has been my intent to go out of my way to embrace government bonds. No diversification was needed nor desired. That's not entirely true I guess. I very nearly backed up the truck on "asset-backed" bonds heading into the great asset crash but I flipped a coin and it came up tails. Whew! Crisis averted, lol.In all seriousness, I'm a retiree. I don't really care how the other bonds perform relative to TIPS (either better or worse). All I care about is that my investments keep up with inflation if bought in an auction and held to maturity. That's it. In the bond world, only TIPS can offer me that assurance (at least before taxes anyway).
Put another way, if I was looking to maximize gains then I could always just drop the fire insurance on my home and hope for the best. Chances are good that I would be wealthier over the long-term. Unfortunately, hindsight could show that my house burned to the ground instead. The loss of my house through fire is not a risk I am willing to take.
I would also point out that buying government bonds directly from the government means I don't have to pay excessive Wall Street middlemen fees and annual expenses. That really appeals to me.So the answer to the question about how much retirees should hold in TIPS falls somewhere between 0 and 100%. But where?Here's another way to put that.So the answer to the question about how much extra risk retirees should expose themselves to in order to potentially gain some extra reward is somewhere between 100% and 0%.As a retiree, I have chosen to expose myself to 0% extra risk and am willing to forgo any additional rewards and/or pain. I'm not suggesting that TIPS are completely safe. I'm simply arguing that they are most likely safer than the other options that Christine Benz is pushing.And finally, this is where the real fun begins.A version of this article appeared on July 21, 2011.On July 21, 2011 the 30-year TIPS rate was 1.64%. I put my entire IRA into one non-diversified 29-year TIPS bond at an even higher rate earlier this year. It is money I will be needing about 29 years from now. I wanted to lock in that rate. I did not want to take the extra risk that the rate would drop. I avoided diversification not out of greed, but rather out of safety.
The 30-year TIPS now yields a mere 0.79%. Hindsight has not been at all kind to well-diversified second blushes.
This is not investment advice. I'm simply offering up my thoughts as they relate to my particular portfolio and risk tolerances. Embracing risk in retirement just doesn't seem like a great plan to me (especially given the name of my blog).
November 25, 2011Violence, pepper spray mar Black Friday shoppingThe instant classic of the day was a video of an Arkansas melee over a $2 waffle iron. The shaky, 48-second clip shows a mass of squealing and shouting men, women and children climbing over each other, grabbing and tossing boxes, with one woman seemingly unaware that her pants were sliding down her backside.
"Oh my God!" a woman screamed in the only sentence discernible among the high-pitched shrieks. One person commenting on the video wrote: "The pinnacle of Western Civilization has arrived."
Here's the original chart and the reasoning behind it.February 8, 2010Stimulus Physics
Click to enlarge.Stimulus was applied. Stocks rose into the air. Many seem convinced that stocks will keep going up. Who knows?
Please don't read too much into this. Almost anything can happen in a world filled with cartoon stimulus and/or cartoon physics.Here's where we are now (with a new projected trajectory).
Click to enlarge.The following is an alternate path and one I would prefer if forced to make a prediction.August 22, 2011Stagnationary Prediction Update?
Click to enlarge.A flatlining outcome is fully consistent with a permanent Rubicon environment. You can pretty much guess that it is my personal favorite, if only to keep the ongoing Rubicon joke alive.
The future's so bright, I gotta wear [rose-colored] shades.This update was requested by Fritz_O in the comments of the last post.See Also:Stimulus PhysicsStimulus Physics Update #1Stimulus Physics Update #2Stimulus Physics Update #3Stimulus Physics Update #4Trend Line DisclaimerSource Data:Yahoo: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average
The following economic theory comes from Bermuda Commercial Bank's treasurer Dan Commissiong. I've got to tell you. It's a whopper.November 19, 2011‘Prosperity was illusion created by global credit bubble'Part 1 The Illusion of Prosperity
To even the casual observer of the global economy it is painfully obvious that all is not well economically, both here in Bermuda and abroad.
Daily economic headlines in our local newspapers and websites read almost verbatim with headlines found in overseas publications. News reports of economic dysfunction are rife, with almost daily reports of layoffs, bankruptcies, business relocations to other jurisdictions, intractable government budget deficits, falling asset prices, high levels of private indebtedness, and highly volatile capital markets.
Throughout the western developed economies average middle class people are at a loss to explain what is happening to their living standards (in Greece especially I imagine), having never experienced this level of economic fallout before in their lives.
Even elected political leaders and senior government finance officials in these countries are at loss to explain how their economies have managed to arrive at the precarious position they find themselves at today.
I believe that the best explanation is simply that a great deal of the prosperity experienced since the early 1980s was an economic illusion created by a global credit bubble that burst in 2008. The fallout from that burst is what's driving today's headlines of economic dysfunction.There's not a rational creature on this planet who would believe this illusion of prosperity theory. It's just crazy talk!
Stagflationary Mark's Dog - Believer Since 2004That's not proof. My dog Honey irrationally believes everything I tell her. She's overflowing with magical thinking.We use ritual acts most often when there is little cost to them, when an outcome is uncertain or beyond our control, and when the stakes are high—hence my communion with the fuselage. People who truly trust in their rituals exhibit a phenomenon known as "illusion of control," the belief that they have more influence over the world than they actually do. And it's not a bad delusion to have—a sense of control encourages people to work harder than they might otherwise. In fact, a fully accurate assessment of your powers, a state known as "depressive realism," haunts people with clinical depression, who in general show less magical thinking.Fortunately, the public has access to advanced ritualistic free trading tools that help us in these uncertain times. It gives us a sense of control. It makes the average investor smarter than the average investor. And let's be perfectly clear here. We're talking tens of millions of retail investors doing hundreds of millions of online trades generating billions in revenue for tens of thousands of highly compensated financial executives. The stakes don't get much higher than that.
I searched for "free trading tools" in Google and only got 2.34 million hits. It's one of Wall Street's most closely guarded magical thinking secrets. Everyone can be a trend line master! It doesn't even require any information on the economy. How cool is that?
It's not a coincidence that man's best friend has mastered the art of magical thinking. We stick with what works! Without magical thinking, we'd all be victims of a clinical great depression by now. There's nothing worse than depressive realism to ruin a perfectly good party.
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