Tuesday, December 16, 2014

1-Unit Housing Permits: Nobody Expects the Parabolic Inquisition

December 16, 2014
Calculated Risk: Comments on November Housing Starts

A year ago, for November 2013, housing starts were reported at 1.091 million on a SAAR basis (seasonally adjusted annual rate), up 29.6% from November 2012. Starts in November 2013 have since been revised up to 1.105 million. That huge increase in starts was probably one reason that many analysts, myself included, were overly optimistic for housing starts in 2014.

Nobody expects the parabolic inquisition.

Note the exceptionally low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting several years ago, and now I expect several years of increasing single family starts and completions.

In order for that prediction to work out, we may need to see some building permit growth. So let's look for it!

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of new private housing units authorized by building permits (in structures with 1 unit).

Click to enlarge.

Uh, oh. Let's zoom in for a closer look.

Click to enlarge.

I spy, with my little eye, a whole lotta nothing burger.

You expected a different video? What is this? Some sort of Parabolic Inquisition?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits - In Structures with 1 Unit


Rob Dawg said...

Not a parabola, a dead cat bounce.

Anonymous said...

Calculated Risk is such a smug prick.

Boy is he due for a comeuppance!!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

A parabola *and* a dead cat bounce!

Catabolic trend failure! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...


Excuse me... is someone out there not having a good time? ;)

Rob Dawg said...

Bill McBride is "mailing it in" and "toeing the line." He is not deserving of personal insults. And let's face it; his market suggestions have been massive wealth generators. So far. Sooooo farrrrr.

Rob Dawg said...


Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

It is not possible to predict where a cat actually is, only the probability of where she "might" be.

The Sebastcat always knows the exact location of itself to within 0.02323 cm though, give or take 3-4 meters. ;)

(Inside joke.)

Rob Dawg said...

By inside you mean probably inside. Wouldn't be prudent to say with any certainty.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,


I definitely should have been more clear. It's a universal inside joke!

That's give or take 14.0 billion parsecs. I'm sticking to the observable universe.

That said, many may not be able to see the inside joke. And if that's the case, then can it truly be a universal inside joke?

Okay, here's the final draft.

A joke that's probably universal and inside, but not guaranteed to be funny, universal, or inside.