Friday, December 19, 2014

The Nonstore Shopping Mall Grinch (Musical Tribute)

December 2014
Area malls report solid early holiday season sales

“Black Friday weekend shopper traffic at Tacoma Mall shows that mall shopping was alive and well.” - Sarah Bonds, director of marketing and business development at Tacoma Mall

“At the beginning of the recession, Best Buy was very concerned with this idea of ‘showrooming’ (in which shoppers examine merchandise in stores but make their final purchase online). Well, we’ve actually seen that the inverse – called ‘webrooming’ — is more true. - Jesse Tron, director of communications and media relations at the New York-based International Council of Shopping Centers

1. Mall shopping is alive and well.
2. Showrooming is not a concern.
3. Webrooming is "more true".
4. I was born yesterday.
5. And I fell off the back of a turnip truck.

The following chart shows real nonstore retail sales per capita in November and December of each year (November 2014 dollars).

Click to enlarge.

That relentless trend channel is not good for shopping malls over the long-term. One might even argue that it is getting exponentially worse for them each year.

The current rising tide (economic expansion) is barely lifting all boats. We're going to see some serious shopping mall damage the next time the tide goes out (economic contraction) though. I have few doubts about that.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...

"More true" reminds me of a joke.

Used Car Salesman: "This car runs fine on the level!"

(The car has crappy brakes and a crappy engine. Best not to go up or down steep slopes.)