The following scatter chart compares the 2-year moving average of office and sales occupation employment (left scale) to the 2-year moving average of real private office construction spending (bottom scale).
Click to enlarge.
If you build it they might come again, but probably not.
As I finished putting this chart together, some confusion arose. I had a really hard time seeing where the data started and where it ended (which is normally trivial on a scatter chart). Turns out the reason for this is that we are almost exactly where we started. As seen in the difference between the blue and red data points, the full loop is now complete.
Welcome to 1995.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Fed Q3 SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Mostly Tighter Standards and Weaker
Demand for All Loan Types
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From the Federal Reserve: The October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion
Survey on Bank Lending Practices
The October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey...
3 hours ago
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