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December 17, 2007
Jeremy Siegel’s Outlook for 2008
1. Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.
In hindsight, we were already in a recession. It began in December of 2007. Hahaha!
2. I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.
Oh, yes. Winning! Hahaha!
3. And I believe that financial stocks, which have plummeted 18% so far this year, will outperform the S&P 500 Index next year as the credit crisis fades.
Back up the truck on those financial stocks! Hahaha!
4. I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.
Hey, the Fed actually did get rates down to 3.5%. In fact, got them below 0.25%. Not only that, but the Fed recently ratcheted them back up again, all the way to today's 0.37%. Hahaha!
5. I recommend investors cash in governments and top rated corporate bonds now – you got a nice ride that you won’t get next year.
And pump that money into the "cheap" financial stocks? 18% off! Bargains at any price! With great risk comes great rewards! So what if Citigroup lost an additional 80% or so? And to this day, still has? Hahaha!
The hilarity continues! Is it too funny? Or is it too depressingly amusing? You make the call!
In all seriousness, I'm laughing nervously. I still own those long-term government bonds he so despises. He can try prying them from my cold dead fingers. I gotta die sometime. After all, it's already been more than 8 years since he told me to sell them.
Welcome to the era of permanent economic emergency life support. And that's no joke. Sigh.
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to
4.15 million SAAR in November
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At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
[image: Existing Home Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.*
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase...
6 hours ago
7 comments:
"With great risk comes great rewards!"
More precisely, the search for great rewards brings great risks.
dearieme,
Once you have absolutely nothing left to lose, you can only gain! Woohoo! ;)
I don't know what Cramer's waiting for, Siegel should be declared one of the great ones. Maybe I missed it.
perhaps we need a future great ones top ten list:
1. Jeremy Seigel
2. David Lereah
3. Chuck "I'm still dancing" Prince
4....
Good thing the malpratice threshold is almost non-existent in finance.
4. Dick "Gorilla" Fuld
5. Angelo "Tan Man" Mozilo
6. Alan "Maestro" Greenspan
7. Franklin "These Assets Are So Riskless That Their Capital for Holding Them Should Be Under 2 Percent" Raines
8. Ben "Strong Economic Fundamentals" Bernanke
9....
Bernanke's quote is in response to the questions of a possible housing bubble in 2005. He sure nailed the denial timing on that one, lol. Sigh.
Larry Kudlow, June 2005:
All the bond bears have been dead wrong in predicting sky-high mortgage rates. So have all the bubbleheads who expect housing-price crashes in Las Vegas or Naples, Florida, to bring down the consumer, the rest of the economy, and the entire stock market.
Ken Fisher, February 2007:
Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster. We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now.
Yay. The top 10 list is complete, lol. Sigh.
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