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In 2007, there were at least 48.5 million jobs that did not require more than a high school education.
In 2014, there are only about 43.5 million jobs that do not require more than a high school education.
So here is my rhetorical question for the optimists. Since overall employment levels have recovered, then where did these missing 5 million jobs go?
Don't you dare answer that the jobs are now being filled by recent college graduates. Trust me on this. I will start spouting student loan statistics and what it could mean to the future of housing in response. In fact, my spouting may never cease.
Don't you dare answer that the jobs have been automated. Once again, trust me on this. You don't want to go there. I'm likely to blow a fully automated spouting gasket.
Don't you dare mention leisure and hospitality employment as a fraction of all employment. That would definitely not be a good debate tactic.
Got gopher moat?
I learned that a one inch deep gopher moat won't contain a bear. Oh, I'm sorry. I already knew that. That's your lesson! You could have used your powers to turn into a dinosaur or another bear to fight him off, or you, an ice cage, but instead you did a gopher moat and now my son is dead.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
12 comments:
I'd guess the jobs either went overseas or were
absorbed through greater, unrewarded productivity.
Nothing like employees wearing a bullseye to increase
productivity.
Sporkfed
Sporkfed,
For what it is worth, I actually think that many recent college graduates now have these jobs. Just because the jobs may not require a college degree, doesn't mean that employers wouldn't want to see one if given the choice.
This fits in well with your "greater, unrewarded productivity" theory, assuming that recent college graduates don't get bitter as they worker harder in a nearly desperate attempt get ahead (or at the very least pay off their student loan debt). Sigh.
This also pretty much proves that I'm not an optimist. I can't come up with any optimistic reasons why these 5 million jobs would be gone. Go figure.
I bet a lot of jobs were reclassified as requiring a degree. CAD drafting being one that comes to mind.
Agree with "Dawg". HR is mostly comprised of extroverted optimists. Extroverts talk amongst each other (way too much). Optimists create lots of bullshit. When lots of extroverted optimists get together the bullshit can reach critical mass causing self-delusion. Self-delusion manifests itself in such ways as: everybody's kids are above average -or- widget-wrangers require a BS degree.
Here in California, all the home remodel jobs, yard jobs, etc. appear to be done by recent non-English speaking immigrants (illegal?) and off the books I presume since the contractors want to be paid in cash. It seems like ages since I've seen whites or blacks doing labor jobs. So maybe the jobs are still there - they're just not currently being counted.
Fred
Job Title Generator
Very amusing. And then there's the quiz...
Quiz: Is Your Job Bullshit?
Nothing screams prosperity like getting coffee from a barista with a college degree!
Perhaps I'm an optimist afterall!
mab,
As I was reading your comment, my phone rang (no joke). As I am on the do not call list, I opted to give your comment all the attention it deserved. The phone call went to voice mail.
They did not leave a message! I used the caller idea to see where the area code was from. Nevada! I don't know anyone in Nevada.
I just lost my opportunity to strike it rich!
Damn your optimism. It potentially cost me millions of dollars in missed opportunities! ;)
I'll add to what Rob Dawg and Fred said.
To Dawg's point: Skilled labor that used to be learned on the job now often requires a degree. There are a couple reasons for this. First, some skills that were "new" required on-the-job training since there were no degrees which taught them. CAD is a nice example that Rob gave. Second, since labor is still oversupplied, one might expect employers to cut labor costs by shifting training costs from themselves to their workers. Let the workers go into debt for degrees that teach relevant skills, in order to compete for the scarce jobs, rather than making the employer pay up for it! Another good example might be in the home health care sector. Full nurses remain relatively scarce and expensive, but between a no-degree bedpan changer and a full nurse, there's a lot of room for workers to compete on skills, and a lot of room for customers to choose workers with more education so long as they don't need to pay more.
To Fred's point: I also think that many of the past's "no college needed" jobs were in residential construction trades. And as we well know from CR's graphs of construction activity, those haven't recovered from the housing bubble peak.
Wisdom Seeker,
Second, since labor is still oversupplied, one might expect employers to cut labor costs by shifting training costs from themselves to their workers. Let the workers go into debt for degrees that teach relevant skills, in order to compete for the scarce jobs, rather than making the employer pay up for it!
I think it is safe to say that we're all on the same page here. Sigh.
I just lost my opportunity to strike it rich!
Maybe not! I think the odds are pretty good that they may call again. Over 100% imo.
How's that for optimism?
mab,
If we don't use our "raises" to gamble on the "calls", then the companies will surely "fold"!
Risk taking, baby. That's what I'm talking about.
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