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October 9, 2015
Fed's Lockhart still sees 2015 rate hike despite recent red flags
The economy remains on a satisfactory track and ... I see a (rate) liftoff decision later this year at the October or December FOMC meetings as likely appropriate. - Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
Trader Tom: Hey, did you hear that Lockhart still sees a rate hike later this year?
Tradet Jon: No, I heard that he still sees a rate hike decision later this year.
Trader Tom: Isn't that the same thing?
Trader Jon: Not exactly. There's a pretty big difference between a rate hike and a rate hike decision. That's why seasoned traders always parse the text.
Trader Tom: You know, this makes sense. Making rate hike decisions at interest rate decision meetings would certainly seem appropriate. I just assumed they were making rate hike decisions at every meeting.
Trader Jon: Been trading long?
Trader Tom: Started trading this year.
Trader Jon: Went long biotechs in late July?
Trader Tom: Yeah, how did you know?
Thursday: Q1 GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
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[image: Mortgage Rates] Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com
and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, *Gross Domestic Prod...
10 hours ago
6 comments:
Well, he only said it was "likely". I see that as 51% chance the Fed will make a decision on (interest) rates in October or December. There is a chance they won't even make a decision, or they could make an inappropriate decision.
I see that as likely, later this year.
Mr Slippery,
Yes! You've nailed the spirit of today's lesson!
They could even decide that it would be inappropriate to make a decision.
In order to attempt to avoid that particular paradox and conundrum, they might even decide not to decide if it would be time to make a decision. Hahaha! :)
A cynic might suspect that the Fed won't raise rates before the 2016 elections. A cynic might.
That depends on the known knowns and known unknowns of FED policy.
dearieme,
A cynic might even suspect that it could be a tight race between the next rate hike and the next recession. Sigh.
Mitchell Bupp,
Monetary Rumsfeld policy for the win! ;)
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