Sunday, September 30, 2007

13 Reasons to Have a Merry Christmas!

If if's and but's were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. - Popular Saying

Stronger China
  1. This year China alone will for the first time accomplish the same feat all on its own (at market exchange rates), even if American growth holds up.
  2. American consumer spending is roughly four times the size of China's and India's combined, but what matters for global growth is the extra dollars of spending generated each year.
  3. But it does not look like getting into trouble over the next couple of years (see article)—the period in which America looks as though it may be feeble.
  4. If China can keep flying high, it will help keep the world economy safe.
  5. Of course, if America suffers a recession, then Asia's exports will weaken.
  6. But this should not hurt GDP growth too much because other factors should help offset the weakening.
  7. If emerging Asian economies start to look weak, their governments have some scope to strengthen them.
  8. So if exports collapse, governments also have ample scope to boost domestic demand.
  9. But emerging Asia accounted for two-thirds of the increase in world energy demand over the past five years.
  10. So if Asia remains strong, commodity prices should too, and commodity-producing emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and the Middle East will also continue to thrive.
  11. Emerging Asia cannot pick up all the slack if America goes into recession.
  12. But Asia can help to keep the world chugging along.
  13. Indeed, a modest slowing in the American economy could even help Asia in the long run if it forces governments to switch the mix of growth from exports to consumption and so make their future growth more sustainable.
Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!


Anonymous said...

since China has been trying to rein in its inflation, if their exports to the US slow, they can blame it on the US economy and get better control of their economy

Exports from China have already slowed down.

For full disclosure I am short TGT April 08 options

Stagflationary Mark said...

If we slow down too much (and take the rest of the world with us) China is liable to see a Great Depression to go with their Great Wall. That certainly would slow down their inflation rate though. Just a theory.