Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Headline CPI Prediction is predicting -0.2% and the consensus is at 0.0%.

That sounds fairly reasonable to me. I might even be inclined to lean towards the -0.2%.

August was a light month for both oil and commodities in general. They have since bounced back but we shouldn't see that show up until September's CPI (released in October).


We also saw a weak jobs report and wage growth was relatively benign.

Employment Report for August

Tack on some possible fear from a stock market that was down (in August anyway) and the headlines filled with subprime woes and there's plenty of reason to think that the CPI might come in a bit light.

If so, it might make me feel a bit better about Bernanke's rate cut. Not much better mind you, since oil and commodities have bounced higher, again.

I'm certainly open to deflation in the short-term (as can be seen by my new Inflation Mood indicator in the corner of my blog, lol). I'm mostly worried about inflation in the long-term.

On a personal note, my Costco stopped carrying Campbell's tomato soup (yeah, I know, but it takes me back to my youth). It is finally on sale at a grocery store near me (60 cents a can). So begins the great tomato soup can hoarding of 2007!

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