Friday, September 21, 2007

Real Wages v.2

Here's an update of the new and improved real weekly wage picture (another month's data is available). This time I've opted for a 4th order polynomial. Once again I'd like to point out that there are many, many ways to put a trend line through the data. If all it took to predict the future was a great trend line, I'd be off investing aggressively in pork bellies!

Since I happen to be a bit bearish on the American worker's outlook, I'm not a believer that this new upward trend will hold. However, I also happen to know I could be wrong.

See Also:
Real Wages
Trend Line Master (humor)!

Source Data:
Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Consumer Price Indexes (CPI)


Anonymous said...

Can I order these polynomials to go? How come you had to order this one FOUR TIMES before you got it? I don't understand. Is this new math?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Stagflationary Mark's Polynomial Quick Lube

This week's specials:

Buy three polynomials at the regular price and get the 4th polynomial for free!

Buy three quarts of oil at the regular price and get the 4th quart at that exact same price!

Anonymous said...

Hey Mark being that you into polynomials and all this good stuff how about a chart of the not in labor force numbers from the BLS for say the last 10 years or so.


Stagflationary Mark said...


I'll see what I can come up with. Don't count on it right away though. I'm stuck doing it the manual way, one BLS report at at a time.

I feel like I'm in the movie Office Space when I'm in that BLS employment data. There must be a better way to get the data and I just haven't figured it out yet.

Hi, Peter. What's happening? We need to talk about your TPS reports. - Office Space