Sunday, May 22, 2016

Q1 Earnings Season Must Be Worse Than We Thought

May 20, 2016
Yahoo Finance: Q1 earnings season summarized in 4 charts

If you think that at least one of the four charts shows actual earnings, then you will be sadly disappointed. No, sir. Each chart summarizes words about specific topics taken from the conference calls. I kid you not.

Let me offer you an example. The fourth chart summarizes how many times China was mentioned compared to previous quarters. Apparently, this is more important to summarize than earnings per share growth.

Fourth, there was a drop in the number of China mentions, something LPL Financial sees as encouraging. Concern about China’s slowing growth, and therefore reduced demand for products from around the world, had driven heightened volatility in January and the beginning of February.

Well, this simply will not do. As a blogger with gloom and doom tendencies, I will attempt to do my part to get the conversation focused back on China again, using fresh information from the past week. Brace for it! Here we go!

May 16, 2016
China Growth Weaker than Expected; Markets Shrug

China reported slower economic growth than expected over the weekend. Industrial output, investment and retail sales growth in April all missed street expectations, reports Barron’s Asia Stocks to Watch Blog.

May 18, 2016
Will the real Chinese unemployment statistics please stand up?

Wolf says that migrant worker numbers have declined in the past three quarters, particularly in the first quarter of this year suggesting that migrant workers, who are among the most mobile/vulnerable and quickest to respond to economic downturns, have begun to move in the opposite direction i.e. back to their rural home villages.

Apologies in advance if I have ruined the upcoming Q2 earnings season by mentioning China so many times in one blog post. In my defense, this is a free blog and therefore...

Talk is cheap.


AllanF said...

Hey wait a minute, you haven't worked in 15 years. Modern teleconference's are... just like that. Nothing's changed.

Stagflationary Mark said...