Thursday, August 27, 2015

Only a 99.7% Chance?

August 27, 2015
ALBERT EDWARDS: There's a 99.7% chance we're in a bear market

In his note, Edwards references a model developed by his colleague Andrew Lapthorne, which incorporates macroeconomic and fundamental equity variables, and which currently indicates a 99.7% probability that we are in a bear market.

I have a doomsday model of my own that I am currently using. It's based on 100 years of historical data. I can say with 100.0% accuracy that no asteroid or comet at least 60 meters in diameter will ever strike our planet. Of course, I could be wrong. There could be a flaw in my model as new data emerges. Anything interesting happen in 1908?

In all seriousness, I'm trying to remember the last time I was 99.7% sure about anything. I remember thinking I was pretty sure that I could pry open a stuck weed whacker with a nearby Phillips screwdriver once. I still have a small scar in the shape of a plus sign from that one. ;)

1 comment:

Stagflationary Mark said...

For what it is worth, I think there's a fair chance we're in a bear market. It's been a rough year for the optimists.

I'm "certainly" not going to gamble on it assuming it's 99.7% certain though. Go figure.